Recovering from the COVID pandemic – What to expect

Aresearch on the people’s mindset and the expectations for economic recovery in the aftermath of COVID19 pandemic was conducted island-wide during the week ending May 15, 2020. The survey was conducted in an on-line interview and telephone interview format and included 750 responses covering all 9 provinces. The survey was conducted by Pro Soft Operations (Pvt) Ltd on behalf of the writer Dr Janaki Kuruppu.

The information areas that the survey covered can be mainly clubbed into two main areas: the issues that people faced during the lockdown and the issues they anticipate when returning to normalcy both from an economic and occupation perspective and a personal life perspective. We see that the findings of this study will give very valuable insights for decision makers in the government and businesses to understand and prepare for the next immediate stages of this crisis.

Recovering from Post COVID-19 Lockdown: Expectations of People

When the country tries to return to normal, what would be the most important things that you would want the government to do to get your family’s economic status back to normal?

Overall, the most requested help by far from the government is to reduce the cost of living which is requested by 56% of the people, followed by the request to improve health systems and help to sustain their financial status by relief on loan payments, protecting MSME’s coming as the second and third most requested supports. When the same response is analysed by the respondent’s income level it is seen that the highest requested support from the government across all income groups is ‘ To reduce the Cost of Living’.

Hence, it is paramount that the government addresses this issue immediately in order to help the people to overcome this economic crisis. The other notable findings are that the highest percentage of requests for improving the health system is from the upper middle class segment which is the group that may not like to patronise the government hospitals, but also find the private health services are very expensive. Whereas the requests for handouts and for more financial support through more loans is coming from the low income class and the requests for protecting SMEs and loan moratoriums are coming from the high income classes as expected.

Expected Recovery Periods for Various Industry Sectors

A question was asked from the people as to when they will be ready to patronise different types of interactive consumer services once the curfew and the lockdown is lifted, to which the responses were that people are ready to visit their banks immediately after curfew lifted, followed by temples and churches and barber salons and beauty parlors. Whether this indicates the need based or priority based choices of our people or whether this is a result of the perceived risk of visiting these places, is for the reader to interpret and ponder.

The key learning from this information is that the banks, religious places and barber salon’s should see a return to normalcy in terms of customer visits within three months, while the schools, tuition classes and restaurants is likely to take up to 3-6 months, and parks, hotels, local tourism and large scale crowd gathering events and cinemas may take up to more than six months to see the previous levels of footfall. However, this is not an indication whether the income of these places will return to normal during these time frames since the consumer even though visiting the places may not spend the same amount as before. Due to the economic impact of the pandemic on almost all industries, it is expected that there will be many closures of companies, layoffs and salary cuts etc. Further, this will depend on the industry type since all industries are not affected in the same manner. The results show that it is only 38% that is sure of not losing their job or business, while another 16% also do not think there is a risk. However, the 11% who is at high risk of losing their employment and the 22% that is sure of a reduced income in the least is definitely going to be a significant burden for the country’s economy going forward.

The analysis of the job security by employment sector shows some significant findings. The highest job security is around 45-55% and is seen in sectors such as Banking/ Finance, Education,

Media and Health, while the lowest job security is in garments and tourism industries as expected. However, what is significant is that 8% of those employed in the garment industry and 4% of those in the tourism industry have already lost their jobs.

One can apply these percentages to the total number of employees in each sector and project the estimated rise in unemployment post this crisis. Further, a significant percentage of 54% professionals who are employed in an individual professional practice say that their income will drastically reduce, followed by 37% in trading and 36% in travel industry who say that their incomes will drastically reduce.

Overall, the most requested help by far from the government is to reduce the cost of living which is requested by 56% of the people, followed by the request to improve health systems and help to sustain their financial status by relief on loan payments, protecting MSME’s coming as the second and third most requested supports