The waves and peaks of COVID

Waves and peaks – this is what former Chief Epidemiologist Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe explains with regard to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Sri Lanka is still having the first wave of COVID-19, which in turn has several peaks.

Dr. Abeysinghe gives the figures before flagging the peak of the first wave: up to March 13 – 5 cases; March 14th to 20th – 66 cases; March 21st to 27th – 34 cases; March 28th to April 3rd – 53 cases; April 4th to 10th – 38 cases; April 11th to 17th – 47 cases; April 18th to 24th – 176 cases; April 25th to May 1st – 271 cases; May 2nd to 8th – 145 cases; May 9th to 15th – 100 cases; May 16th to 22nd – 133 cases; and May 23rd onwards – 300 plus cases and rising.

As such the first peak occurred between April 25th and May 1st (271 cases) while the second peak may be this week or much later, he says.

Harking back to the Spanish flu which hit the world in 1918, he says there had been six waves. This can go on until a vaccination is developed and people get their shots. The government, meanwhile, has to take a policy decision whether we are going to keep all these positive cases at home or in hospitals. So far they have been in hospitals but now we need to think whether it is worth keeping them hospitalised as there is a two-way risk, said Dr. Abeysinghe.

He added that one is that if these patients don’t have symptoms, it is taken lightly. The other is that if hospitals get filled up, they would not be able to handle it.