Lanka’s politics enters new normal
When some 16 million voters eligible to trek to their polling booths on Wednesday, maintaining their social distance and carrying their own pens to mark that all important cross on their ballot paper at Sri Lanka’s 16th general election to elect 225 MPs, it will truly be an election like no other this country has ever seen.
That is not only because the twice-postponed poll -- the country’s most expensive to date with each vote costing the state 625 rupees -- is being held under the cloud of a global coronavirus pandemic. It is also because it will be the first general election in seventy-two years of independence where the main contenders will arguably, not be the United National Party (UNP) or the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
The two parties which dominated the nation’s political landscape have seen major divisions leading to the formation of two offshoots, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) springing from the SLFP and the UNP respectively. The ruling SLPP has already superseded the SLFP. The SJB has won the first round by attracting more former UNP MPs, but that can also turn to the advantage of the ‘Grand Old Party’.
With President Gotabaya Rajapaksa already in power and place and having managed the coronavirus pandemic better than most countries that have better resources, the SLPP is expected to retain pole position at the poll. Its leaders, President Rajapaksa and Premier cum elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, will, however, not be satisfied with just a simple majority; they are aiming higher: a two-thirds majority, so they could enact key constitutional reforms such as repealing the 19th Amendment. They say when you aim for the moon and miss you at least hit a star.
A glance at Sri Lanka’s electoral map reveals that the Northern and Eastern provinces -- where the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) dominates and where the SLPP is at its weakest -- accounts for 29 seats. At the last national election, the 2019 November presidential election, these regions voted overwhelmingly against the SLPP.
Therefore, to secure a two-thirds majority, the party with the lotus bud or ‘pohottuwa’ symbol will have to win almost all of the required 150 seats from the balance 196 in the rest of the country -- a near impossibility under the PR system.
System change
Another factor that may affect the SLPP is its reliance on the ‘old guard’ that supports Mahinda Rajapaksa. A key feature of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidential election campaign was his promise to usher in a ‘system change’ after seven decades of parochial politics. His lack of political experience was cited as a virtue instead of a liability. Credited for coordinating the war effort against the LTTE, he was seen as a 'doer' even after with his urban development projects. Now, however, the SLPP has reverted to many candidates who were accused of corruption and abuse of power that brought about the downfall of the Rajapaksa regime in 2015. The President’s ‘ Viyath maga’ candidates are running into stormy weather and undercutting by the elder brother’s candidates in the districts as “polowa paagapu nathi aya” -those who have no common touch.
Even if the SLPP-led government earned kudos from the public for managing the coronavirus pandemic quite well, it is also beginning to slowly but surely feel the burden of incumbency. The economic toll of the pandemic is beginning to tell and may well be a factor in diminishing the party’s returns.
Then, there is the sniping from the ‘parent party’, the SLFP, which is still under former President Maithripala Sirisena, who is contesting from the Polonnaruwa district. SLPP stalwarts have not been shy to lambast the former President and in some districts, there is open hostility between candidates of the two parties. Such is the hostility that on Friday, SLFP lawyers were contemplating sending letters of demand to SLPP candidates slandering their SLFP counterparts. This may be due to the tussle for the all-important preference vote, but its intensity may also put off the voter from endorsing this marriage of convenience between the SLPP and the SLFP. In this backdrop, what fate awaits winning SLFPers under an SLPP dominated Government is to be seen.
These concerns may appear trivial in comparison to travails in the UNP. The vast majority of its former parliamentarians have deserted the party, opting to join the SJB instead, taking their vital grassroots support networks with them. What is now left is a skeleton of what was once the Grand Old Party, hanging on to the party headquarters at Sirikotha and the ‘elephant’ symbol.
There are those who credit Ranil Wickremesinghe for being a loyal partyman, best proven when he stood-by President R. Premadasa during the impeachment crisis of 1992. And there are those who will continue to vote for the party and the ‘elephant’. But some loyalists of Ranil Wickremesinghe at the helm of the party maybe staying put with an agenda of their own. If the UNP suffers a crushing defeat -- or comes a distant third to the SJB -- at Wednesday’s election, even Wickremesinghe’s legendary survival skills may be tested. That is why both Assistant Leader Ravi Karunanayake and National Organiser Navin Dissanayake haven’t been shy to publicly say they are ‘suitable’ to lead the UNP in a post-Wickremesinghe era.
Wickremesinghe’s inability to forge a working relationship with Sirisena led to the latter sabotaging him at every turn and resulted in a shambolic government that has now become synonymous with the five-time Prime Minister and the UNP.
Survival of two party leaders
What was begun as a government of great promise, a marriage between the country’s two main parties ended on the rocks. What is at stake at this election is the survival of the two party leaders who forged that National Government in 2015, but also their own survival as major political parties. That is a sobering thought because the demise of a party that had played a leading role in the nation gaining independence, and a party that governed the country for over three decades each and a party that has been the alternative government on several occasions should not be a cause for celebration.
There has been some speculation that after the election, the SLFP and the SLPP could coalesce and Mahinda Rajapaksa could make a triumphant return as the leader of a unified, single party. Anything is possible but whether the Rajapaksas would want to trade a party that carries their imprimatur for one that is still synonymous with the Bandaranaikes remains to be seen. One might well say “Roll over Bandaranaike”, the Rajapaksas have come to stay.
The main opposition to the SLPP at this election appears, on the face of it, to come from the offshoot of the UNP – the SJB led by Sajith Premadasa. Some heavy artillery has been fired in his direction with a few days to go for polling in the form of a prime ministerial committee that has “investigated” the Central Cultural Fund accounts during Premadasa’s watch. Premadasa was defeated at the presidential poll in the southern districts and blames it on the stonewalling by Wickremesinghe. Egged on by his ‘fan club’ of party supporters, he has gone his own way, in much the same way as his father Ranasinghe Premadasa formed the ‘Purawesi Peramuna’ (Citizens Front) rebelling against his political mentor Dudley Senanayake in the early seventies.
Parallels have been drawn with Mahinda Rajapaksa leaving the SLFP to form the SLPP and the SLPP emerging victorious a few years later but the SJB is a far cry from being a fully-fledged and functional political party, despite attracting the majority of UNP stalwarts to its fold. Moreover, Premadasa has neither the charisma nor the political achievements that Rajapaksa can boast of -- not yet, anyway.
On the one hand, the SJB is still embroiled in a legal dispute with the UNP and speaks of capturing power at ‘Sirikotha’, the UNP’s headquarters, indicating that it is still hesitant to cut the umbilical cord with the parent party. On the other hand, any chance of the SJB launching a swashbuckling campaign has been hampered by restrictions necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic.
In an election that will be remembered for its lacklustre campaigns by all political parties, Premadasa has offered a 20,000-rupee grant to each family -- but this hasn’t gained the kind of traction his father had with his promise of ‘Jana Saviya’ thirty years ago.
In such circumstances, the SJB would be hoping to be the main opposition party with a decent number of seats when the results of the election filter in on Thursday. Some SJB stalwarts are hoping that strong returns from the SJB would generate enough angst among UNPers to pave a pathway for Premadasa to return and lead the UNP but such a path will surely be guarded by the likes of Karunanayake and Dissanayake who will have their daggers drawn to prevent a return of Premadasa (Snr.)’s prodigal son. Whatever the outcome of the election, while the SLFP is expected to meekly capitulate to the Rajapaksa-led SLPP juggernaut, the night of the long knives in the UNP appears nigh.
JVP woes
Vying for an honourable place in this contest -- instead of always being an ‘also ran’ -- is the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). In a political climate where most voters are tired of the major parties, the left of centre revolutionaries haven’t been successful in garnering the votes of the disaffected.
If there were hopes that comrade Anura Kumara Dissanayake would infuse new life into the party, after its failed revolutions in 1971 and 1989, he only earned the sobriquet ‘Mr. Three Percent’ at the last presidential election, polling just that amount of votes. It appears as if the JVP’s rigid allegiance to leftist ideology and its lack of remorse for its insurrections is preventing it from evolving in to a political force to be reckoned with.
In the North, the mainstream Tamil National Alliance (TNA) does not have the monopoly it enjoyed until it was forcibly jettisoned from the scene by the LTTE. Its return to the political field has been only after the LTTE was eliminated from the ‘scheme of things’, but its exclusivity has been short-lived with ambitious politicians -- who like those who began their political life in the SLFPers and UNPers in the South only to break-away, have challenged their one-party rule in the region. So, one can say that it is not only the SLFP and UNP, but also the TNA -- all three of whom dominated the politics of this country for decades -- has paved the way for a new era in Sri Lanka’s politics.
Counting of Wednesday’s votes -- in another departure from tradition -- will begin only on Thursday morning and the results are expected to trickle in throughout Thursday and possibly into early Friday morning.
The realpolitik will begin only then, particularly if the SLPP-led coalition falls short of securing a two-thirds majority and even yet another ‘national’ government with a Cabinet with enhanced numbers may become a reality because, as Bismarck said, politics is the art of the possible. Nevertheless, at this election, Galbraith’s observation that politics is not the art of the possible but choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable, might be more appropriate.
Even if the SLPP-led government earned kudos from the public for managing the coronavirus pandemic quite well, it is also beginning to slowly but surely feel the burden of incumbency. The economic toll of the pandemic is beginning to tell and may well be a factor in diminishing the party’s returns