‘SL will continue to see exponential rise in severe cases & deaths’

Addressing concerns whether the current testing was providing an accurate reflection of the dynamics of the epidemic (the epidemic curve), Prof. Malik Peiris noted that the number of tests done per day had flattened out at maximum capacity. This means that the number of positives detected is likely to remain flat in spite of a continued increase in cases.

Even in spite of this, the case numbers have jumped from around 2,500 to 3,500 in the past few days. We have to conclude that we are still in the exponential growth phase of this epidemic. With deaths inevitably lagging behind the cases by about 7-14 days, we will continue to see an exponential increase in cases requiring ICU admission and those who die, he said.

Sadly, said this virologist, it will continue to rise for a number of weeks more because of infections that have already taken place. Doctors and nurses tell us that hospital capacity is already overrun. How will we cope with the increase in demand? Although new emergency hospitals are being built, the expertise such as ICU specialists and nurses cannot be manufactured in a similar way. In addition to the clinical staff, the public health staff, the PHIs and the laboratory staff are all overloaded and exhausted. This is the scale of the challenge we face.

The imagery Prof. Peiris gives is that a pandemic of this nature is like a “super-tanker” sailing at full speed in the ocean. We cannot stop or turn such a vessel in a short period of time, within a short distance. We have to anticipate the obstacles ahead far in advance and adjust course. By the time we see the obstacles clearly, it is too late to avoid a collision. We only have to look north of the Palk Strait for an example.

Country after country has paid a high price for complacency and ‘exceptionalism’ about this virus, which led to the belief that the terrible scenes we saw in other places will not befall us in our own country. This occurred in America, parts of Europe and most recently in India. Hope we do not allow this to befall us in Sri Lanka, he added.