Containing COVID for economic survival: Restrictions or complete lockdown?

The burning question is whether the life threatening COVID-19 could be eliminated by partial and intermittent measures of imposing restrictions with intervals of relaxation or whether a draconian 14-day lockdown is essential.

Current strategy

At the time of writing this column, the Government had opted for a limited shutdown of economic activity with measures to ensuring that essential production and services function.

Whether such a strategy would succeed in containing the virus will only be known with the passage of time. Medical advice has been that a 14-day complete lockdown is mandatory to control COVID.

The current stringent restrictions that approximate to a lockdown are expected to continue till June 7 with two days of limited respite. There is a prospect of further restrictions that would be nearer the advice of the medical associations.

Controversy

The controversy on the Colombo Port City that gripped the nation has given way to the issue of containing the life threatening resurgence of COVID in the country. While there is no controversy on the urgent need to wipe out COVID, the means of doing so has become one owing to its economic impact.

Contrasting views

The Government’s concern of ensuring the working of the economy is in direct contrast to medical opinion that a lockdown of 14 days is essential to stem COVID. The economic advisors of the Government have pointed out that a lockdown would affect the economy adversely and cause severe hardships to the poor.

Economy

Undoubtedly, in the perilous state of the economy, especially external finances, inability to meet export orders is a serious threat to the trade balance. Furthermore, the poorer sections of the community will face severe hardships as they would be denied their incomes and livelihoods. As a large proportion of the population are in informal employment on daily wages and hardly have any savings, they would be in severe hardships.

Medical view

These facts are well-known and non-controversial. The controversy arises with the manner of containing the fast spreading pandemic. Medical opinions here and abroad have stressed that this third or even fourth wave can be checked, only with a two week complete lockdown of the country. Eminent specialists in the field, and four medical associations in the country, are of this view. This strategy is particularly relevant in the context of the country’s inability to vaccinate a significant proportion of the population.

International experience

Countries that have succeeded in eliminating the virus in their countries have been those that imposed a complete lockdown and closed their borders such as New Zealand and Australia. Other countries like Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore too succeeded due to their stringent controls, responsible social conduct and adherence to preventive measures.

Yet even in these countries there have been a resurgence and restrictions re-imposed. Such is the virulence of this pandemic.

Precondition

There is no controversy that the eradication of COVID is a precondition for economic activity, especially for manufacturing and exports. In the perilous state of the economy, especially external finances, inability to meet export orders is a serious threat to the trade balance. The economic downturn would be enormous.

Furthermore, the poorer sections of the community will face severe hardships as they would be denied their incomes and livelihoods, as a large proportion of the population are in informal employment on daily wages and hardly have any savings.

Government interventions and community actions are needed to relieve people’s hunger and starvation and other severe hardships.

State finances

The Government’s state of finances are such that it is unable to fund essential medical needs and expand facilities. There have been generous contributions from individuals, religious organisations, businesses and community organisations. These facts are well-known and non-controversial.

Alternate strategy

At present the Government has opted for a shutdown of the economy and economic activity with means of ensuring that essential services and production units are able to function. Whether this will succeed in containing the virus will only be known with the passage of time.

Prior to the stringent restrictions there was evidence of export manufactures, especially apparel production being disrupted. In fact one of the country’s main garment manufacturers has closed its factories.

Conclusion

All things considered, there can be no controversy on the urgent need to eradicate COVID, but the means of doing so has become a sharp controversy. The Government’s obsession in ensuring the working of the economy is in direct contrast to medical opinion that only a lockdown of 14 days could stem the spread of COVID. There appears to be a growing shift to this position or to a near lockdown.

The control of COVID is critical for the economy and the paramount concern for the life of people in the country. The economy can function only in a COVID free environment. Therefore, the national priority must be the containment of COVID and relief for the poor, unemployed and impoverished by the shutdown and restrictions. If the current measures prove in adequate to stem COVID, a lockdown will be mandatory.

Let us hope that this life threatening resurgence of COVID will be eliminated in the country and the world sooner rather than later, and there will be an economic revival.