How Russia's invasion of Ukraine could hurt travel's recovery
This was supposed to be a year of recovery for a travel industry hit hard by a pandemic. Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed that.
After two years of disrupted travel due to ever-changing Covid-19 restrictions, airlines and tour operators are once again bracing for closed skies, cancellations and a cloud of uncertainty over international travel.
More than 30 countries have so far closed their airspace to Russia, with Moscow reacting in kind. Russia's Civil Aviation Authority announced it has closed off its airspace to the carriers of at least 37 countries. The airspace over Ukraine, Moldova and parts of Belarus also remains closed. In the short-term this means flight cancellations or a diversion of air routes. But the longterm consequences for the travel industry could be much more far reaching. Rising fuel costs will hike travel prices
Global crude oil prices surged to more than $110 per barrel as investors fear Russian energy exports will be limited or halted as a result of the conflict.
These price surges will make any type of travel more expensive. Coupled with longer air routes that need more fuel as they circumvent closed Russian air space, the higher prices will be passed on to consumers. A spike in fares could lead to lower demand -- and that spells bad news for an industry already struggling to make up for pandemic-related losses, not to mention inflation.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, known as EASA, has warned of a "high risk" to civilian aircraft flying near the Ukrainian border. The agency added, "in particular, there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft." EASA's warning will not be taken lightly after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Refugee crisis could make Covid-19 worse
We're still living amid a global pandemic with country specific travel and quarantine restrictions. Travel bodies had been calling on governments to lift Covid-19 related travel restrictions as vaccinated societies hoped for some sort of return to "normal." However, the World Health Organization warned conditions on the ground in Ukraine and the resulting refugee crisis will make it easier for coronavirus to spread.
"Anytime you disrupt society like this and put millions of people on the move, infectious diseases will exploit that," Dr Mike Ryan, director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Program, said. "People are packed together, they're stressed, they're not eating, they're not sleeping properly. They're highly susceptible. It's likely that disease will spread."
The effects of a potential spread of the virus in neighbouring countries could make governments less likely to ease Covid-19 restrictions, which will keep the pressure on the travel industry.
Loss of tourism revenue
According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), Russians made more than 10.1 million tourism-related trips abroad in 2021. Those tourism dollars looked set to flow into 2022. That changed with Russia waging war on its neighbour. The absence of Russian tourists will deal a big blow to those heavily dependent tourism destinations.
Crippling Western sanctions have caused the Russian ruble to plummet to new lows. As Russians' savings diminish in value, they'll also find it harder to use global credit cards when they travel.
No one likes uncertainty
The uncertainty over what happens next is making people think twice about travel plans. Of course planned vacations are in no way comparable to the plight of the Ukrainian people and the immense humanitarian disaster unfolding, but the impact Russia's invasion of Ukraine could have on an already fragile travel industry is one that could be felt far into the future.