A state of political and economic emergency
Calling out the Armed Forces has seemingly been President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's last throw of the dice – declaring a State of Emergency on Friday night following the hartal earlier in the day, members of Parliament besieged by radicalised students and trade unions threatening to extend strike action on a daily basis from next week until the President and his Government resign.
A botched attempt by the Opposition to defeat his tottering Government in Parliament over the election of the Deputy Speaker was expected to give the President and his brother-Prime Minister a lifeline. A no-confidence motion against the Government seemed also ' dead in the water', given the humiliating defeat suffered by the Opposition. Yet, the President must have felt he remained on shaky ground. He seemed willing to sacrifice his PM, one of the demands of the ongoing popular uprising in a bid to turn the tide against him and his Government. His political decisions have been questionable ever since he took the mantle of the Presidency, relying heavily on the military all along to deliver him the goods – from the battle against COVID to introducing organic fertiliser and running the public service. But this was the last resort in the face of crippling strikes in essential services on the cards from next week and mounting agitation turning from peaceful to aggressive, with provocateurs eager for blood-letting.
The President may well have listened to State Intelligence reports that the mass uprising has been infiltrated by adventurist radical elements taking advantage of the political instability and economic chaos to push through extra- parliamentary, extra- constitutional solutions to overthrow the democratic framework of the country. Even Opposition MPs cocky as they were got roughed up outside the Legislature on Friday by vocal undergrads and had to beat a hasty retreat through a by-lane. Others, like the Bar Association, however, think otherwise, and fear the step the President has taken will only further complicate efforts at restoring political stability in the country.
This political instability is interwoven with the economic situation. The Finance Minister told Parliament that the country's usable reserves are down to USD 50 million. Some Sri Lankan individuals have more money stashed away in offshore bank accounts than the Government has in its pockets right now. Politically, the President is now almost a lame duck. There has been no visibility of him in recent weeks. He has not generated any public confidence that he's conferring with those in charge of the economy or the public service. The ship of state he commands has hit an iceberg and is capsizing his own efforts at trying to steer the damaged vessel to safe shores. His Government is in disarray and the entire Government machinery and industry is grinding to a halt. He has gone back to the military where he is most comfortable. The Finance Minister gave a frank assessment of the state of the economy to Parliament this week. His confession that the Government delayed in going to the IMF in the face of a collapse of the economy last year, and the foolish cuts in taxes itself are grounds to send this Government home.
He spoke of the aid in the pipeline from the World Bank, IMF and ADB as well as India and China, but gave little explanation and held out lesser hope on how his Government, with only USD 50 million in the public purse, hoped to pay here and now for the next shipment of food, fuel and medicines.