Youth: Losing their future
It is not a new feature of the Sri Lankan political economy – frustration of the country’s “educated youth” at present times as well as in the past! When they realise about their hopeless future, a significant portion of the frustrated youth can be mobilised for a different cause; today they have mobilised themselves for non-violent means of protest. The objective of the protest has been reported as overthrowing the so-called “responsible political leaders” from power.
The “leaders” who won the 30- year long separatist war in May 2009 had an unparalleled mandate at the Presidential and General Elections in 2010 to change the course of direction for the nation as well as for themselves. We shouldn’t have missed the bus at that time, as it was too costly; but we missed it too. The “leaders” lost the opportunity for the nation as well as for themselves.
In the past, the youth of the country have resorted to the violent means of political conflicts. The Tamil separatist movement in the North and the Sinhalese insurrection in the South are classic examples of youth uprisings in Sri Lanka.
The country is in an economic crisis that is getting worse day- by- day. In the midst of this, a month- old non- violent protest of the youth is still continuing at the Galle Face site in Colombo. As a result, the country is caught up in a political crisis too. In this backdrop, I thought of returning to one of my historical topics in economics – the loss of aspirations of the “educated youth” in Sri Lanka.
Conflicts in history
Historical conflicts of militant youth have blocked the country’s development process resulting in decades of dismal economic outcome, while the dismal economic outcome itself has nurtured the destructive political conflicts. Sri Lanka lost a few decades of potential economic growth due to its youth conflict since the 1980s. It was the “youth generation” which was born and brought up in Sri Lanka’s “welfare state”.
They were born in the 1950s-1970s in large numbers as the death rates were “modern” and the birth rates were “primitive”. Modern death rates are smaller, but primitive birth rates are larger as a unique feature of the Sri Lankan demographic transition in a welfare state at the time. As a result, the Sri Lankan population doubled in 30 years (1950-1980).
While the youth category of the growing population was disproportionately large, they were nurtured in the contem
porary welfare state with free health, free education, subsidised living support and, extensive government care. When the educated youth generations with aspirations for their future entered the modern society, alas, it was a society with a shortage of basic needs, resources and opportunities. Why?
The economy has not grown enough to generate adequate basic needs, resources and opportunities in order to satisfy the aspirations of the educated youth. A society with “frustrated youth who are idling with the loss of hopes” is a fertile ground for mobilising them for a political cause, irrespective of its purpose which doesn’t matter.
Both Sinhalese insurgents in the early-1970s and 1980s and the Tamil separatists in the late- 1970s and the 1980s, though technically isolated and objectively divided, shared much in common. They both emerged and formed into militant political forces almost simultaneously at the same time and attracted largely the rural educated youth. They fought against the established traditional political order represented also by their own communities.
Today’s conflict
About 50 years later, today the world is entirely different with technological advancement and fast-tracked globalisation. Given the ageing population issue in Sri Lanka, today’s youth cohort of the population is disproportionately smaller. Technically, this should have created greater amount of resources and a larger space of opportunities for a smaller
youth category in order to meet their aspirations.
At the same time the ageing population issue should have opened opportunities to manage the dependency ratio of the country productively and to derive greater benefits of a “demographic bonus” from ageing. These opportunities were expanded further with the end of all the destructive conflicts in 2009.
But today’s youth witnessed a different world in Sri Lanka: First, they saw that their former generations “getting old without becoming rich” for which they also had to bear the burden. Secondly, they also saw that their future has been robbed, resulting in a shrinking space for resources and opportunities. They also saw that the resources and opportunities were opened for a few through doors opened for large-scale corruption.
On the top of all that they experienced the unparalleled current economic crisis in Sri Lanka which dissolved their last bits and pieces of hope for a better future. The crisis is seen in terms of the country’s inability to pay off its debt, scarcity of foreign exchange, domestic supply shortages, fast- depreciating exchange rate and sky-rocketing prices. With all that, in turn, businesses were seen getting paralysed pushing the country into a vicious cycle of crisis multiplication.
Alternative reactions
Apart from either violent conflicts or non- violent protests, there are other forms of youth reactions too. One of the alternative choices has been the increased tendency of the educated youth to leave the country. Sri Lanka has also emerged as a country that builds up educated skilled labour (of course, with free education) for the benefit of other countries which do not have to spend for that.
Those who look at the migration problem superficially consider the amount of dollars that it would generate, but not the loss of potential developmental contribution of the generations. They further argue in favour of the migration of “educated skilled labour” instead of “less-educated unskilled labour”. However, the underlying reason for increased migration is either the lack of opportunities or the inadequate rewards for people in their home country.
In other words, it shows nothing other than the dismal economic performance which would have otherwise, generated opportunities and resources for the educated youth. The economic crisis and the youth protest have both again brought about valuable lessons for Sri Lanka, if we are willing to learn and accept.
Corrections and directions
Let us recall the government’s policy vision as far back as 2010, which was a new beginning after the end of the conflict. The policy vision was to achieve economic prosperity at a rapid pace by transforming the Sri Lankan economy into a “dynamic global hub” in the areas of shipping, aviation, commerce, energy and knowledge. The key to achieve a global hub status was the ‘greater connectivity’ and ‘ global competitiveness’ through policy and regulatory reforms.
A dynamic global hub in shipping, aviation, commerce, energy and knowledge results in a rapid expansion of the construction industry, utility sectors, international and domestic trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage, communication, financial services, real assets and business activities. The expansion of these economic activities also leads to a change in the occupational composition, generating employment demand for managers, professionals, technicians, clerks, service workers, trade workers and machine operators.
If the economy had performed as envisaged in the policy vision 2010, Sri Lanka would have soon encountered a shortage of educated and skilled labour. As per the preliminary estimates, the employment demand under a high growth scenario of the country would have risen by 2.5 million in 10 years by 2020; in that case, Sri Lanka would have had to depend on importing foreign labour.
The time has come again to set the future agenda by learning from lessons. While the immediate policy measures to deal with current crisis is important, setting the policy vision and adopting the reform programme is needed. There is no other way to halt “repeating the history” in the future. Crises and conflicts are “blessings in disguise” for corrections and directions.