Coercion China’s likely focus: experts
LIMITS OF THE US: Dan Blumenthal and Frederick Kagan said that Beijing could escalate its hybrid warfare, which ‘US policy is not well designed to deter or defeat’
Beijing is more likely to coerce Taiwan into unification rather than invade, against which the US should step up its deterrence, US academics said.
Instead of an invasion of Taiwan, China might launch a “short of war coercion campaign” focusing on “economic warfare accompanied by limited kinetic action,” American Enterprise Institute senior fellows Dan Blumenthal and Frederick Kagan said in an opinion piece published in The Hill on Monday.
“More attention to Taiwan’s security is welcome,” they said, while warning that “the current public discourse remains too focused” on the threat of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
For example, Beijing could escalate the hybrid warfare strategy it has been implementing, which “US policy is not well designed to deter or defeat,” they said.
Unifying Taiwan without “starting a full-scale and likely global war” means that China could reduce the risk of hurting its national power and the ambition to become the world’s leading power, they said.
The “deep domestic political divisions” and “a rise in skepticism of America’s support” reflected in the Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections in January “creates an opening for China’s manipulation of Taiwan’s understandable fears of abandonment,” they said.
Beijing’s adoption of “gray zone” tactics in the South and East China seas and the Taiwan Strait has proved a “general success,” which makes it likely it would continue the strategy, they said.
A report published by the academics and other researchers on Monday showed that such a strategy is “realistic and highly dangerous,” Blumenthal and Kagan said.
The study modeled Chinese coercive actions during the four-year term of the incoming administration, including constant air and naval incursions, a quasi-blockade, political warfare and manipulation, extensive cyber and physical sabotage of Taiwan’s critical infrastructure, and deadly force on outlying islands.
The strategy would possibly break the US-Taiwan relationship, degrade Taipei’s ability to govern, and undermine the will of Taiwanese to resist and the US’ desire to aid Taiwan, they said.
The scenario would provide Beijing with a “peace offering” opportunity, where it promises Taipei a level of autonomy in exchange for cooperation, they said.
Blumenthal and Kagan called on the US and its allies to deter China by “clearly articulating Taiwan’s sovereign rights under international law” and rejecting Chinese attempts to treat Taiwanese affairs as “internal matters.”
Taipei and Washington should work together to “better prepare Taiwan to withstand blockades and blockade-like economic activities,” they said.
They also called for a US-led coalition to foster closer cooperation with Taiwan to make China pay for its military intimidation such as air incursions over the Taiwan Strait.
“By focusing on the means by which China is likely to intensify its coercion efforts, the US can overcome them,” they said.