Energy activists jump for joy but the battle’s not over

Two pieces of energy news in two weeks have had energy reform advocates practically dancing in the street. Social media has been abuzz with celebratory postings and comments. This came after the National Reform Council (NRC) on Jan 5 voted to promote renewable energy by easing rules regarding the installation of solar rooftop panels for households to produce power for their own use or for resale to the national grid.

Currently, such installation comes under strict regulations, which many critics say are intended to suppress competition against major energy companies as well as the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), the state enterprise with majority control of power generation in the country.

The NRC recommends the government incorporate its resolution in the country’s 20-year Power Development Plan being drafted, and that relevant agencies begin drafting necessary regulations and making preparations, financial or otherwise, to facilitate the scheme.

Following hot on the heels of this groundbreaking resolution, the NRC on Tuesday passed a shock resolution to reject its own committee’s energy reform recommendation to go ahead with the much-delayed 21st concession bidding for oil and gas exploration and production.

Energy reform advocates were euphoric. The NRC’s overwhelming 130-79 vote against the recommendation was totally unexpected. Even before the vote, some advocacy groups had devised Plan B and more to keep alive their campaign against petroleum exploitation, which they say would lead to the ruination of the environment and local people’s land and livelihoods.

The outcome is a major surprise because the cards were stacked against the energy reform movement from the beginning. When the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) appointed a committee to select people to sit on the energy reform committee, three of the seven members were former CEO of Thailand’s largest oil conglomerate PTT.

Three others were former bureaucrats from the commerce, industry and agriculture ministries. They were expected to select people sympathetic to the oil and gas industry or toe the government’s line which is synonymous with that of the oil and gas industry. To be sure, a number of energy reform sympathisers were also appointed but they are a distinct minority.

So it’s safe to say that the NRC vote was a total upset for the oil and gas industry. On the other hand, it is premature for the energy reform advocates to celebrate. The vote is a victory, yes, but the war is far from being won.

Immediately after the vote, various spokesmen for the government and energy industry cautioned in press interviews that the NRC’s resolution was “only a recommendation”. The government could choose either to heed or ignore it because the government is duty-bound to run the country, whatever that means.

The Energy Ministry made it clear, however, that so long as it has not been advised by the cabinet to the contrary, the licensing will continue as scheduled.

Energy Ministry Narongchai Akrasanee penned the order to begin the process on Oct 21 last year. Those interested in participating in the licensing round have until Feb 18 to file their documents. They will be vying for the right to explore and extract oil and gas in 29 concession areas or blocks.

The majority of 17 blocks are in the northeastern region where initial exploration in some areas had earlier been undertaken, which incidentally led to conflicts between exploration companies and local people. Six of the blocks are in the northern and central regions while the remaining six are offshore.

The government spokesmen seemed to imply in press interviews that there was a likelihood the NRC’s resolution would be rejected. If that’s the case, it would be a pretty tight hole they are trying to get out of.

It’s true that the NRC’s resolution is not legally binding and the government can choose to go either way. But before the government decides against the resolution, it should pause and consider the margin of the vote itself as well as public sentiment about the issue.

Reform advocates have reminded Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, prime minister and NCPO chief, what he said when activists earlier launched a campaign march in the South to demand energy reform. The march was cut short because of intervention, which was more like intimidation, by the military.

To paraphrase Gen Prayut, he told the activists to “take your case to the NRC”, implying whatever resolution came out of it, the government would oblige.

There is really not much room to manoeuvre now for the oil and gas proponents both inside the government and the industry. To ignore the NRC’s resolution would certainly enrage a lot of people, not just the energy activists.

Gen Prayut could choose to ignore the NRC’s resolution and risk provoking public protests.

Or, on the positive side, he could sit down with the reform advocates and have a serious and civil discussion on how to proceed with energy reform to reach a solution most beneficial to the country.