‘LOOK EAST’ TURNS TO ‘ACT EAST’
Indian PM Narendra Modi ready to engage Asean more actively and to speak out on sensitive issues including the South China Sea.
Having spent a lot of time wooing mainly Western countries in his first year in office, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to work on strengthening ties with Asean and Central Asian countries i n India’s extended neighbourhood.
Modi spent 53 days of his first year in office on visits abroad to the United States, Canada, Germany, France, Australia and a dozen other countries, including some in India’s immediate neighbourhood. This year he is expected to touch down in Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia among other destinations, as well as attend the East Asia Summit and Asean Summit from Nov 18-22 in Malaysia.
Unlike his Myanmar visit last year which was exploratory in nature, this time around Modi will not only seek better economic, strategic, cultural and historic ties with Asean members but also look for a political role for India.
New Delhi is expected to assert itself more at the East Asia Summit, which groups Asean plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. That could include taking a stand on the sensitive issue of the South China Sea, where China is locked in an increasingly worrying standoff with other claimants including Vietnam and the Philippines.
The South China Sea is more than just a diplomatic issue for New Delhi. The Indian company ONGC Videsh Ltd is exploring there despite objections from Beijing.
“India has had a subdued role until now, but Modi will be assertive. China should understand other countries’ concerns on core issues,” said Pankaj Jha, research director of the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) in New Delhi.
The government in the past year has been transforming India’s “Look East” strategy into an “Act East” one, emphasising “action and engagement”, Jha told Asia Focus.
Where China is concerned, there has never been a shortage of diplomatic irritants, some of which have escalated into out-and-out conflict. Recent headaches have included China’s issuance of stapled visas to residents of Arunachal Pradesh state, and Chinese investments in parts of Kashmir that are under Pakistani control.
Significantly, while Modi is chatting up Asean and East Asian leaders, an Indian Navy flotilla will be visiting a number of Southeast Asian countries. Jha said the Indian navy would conduct joint exercises with Indonesia off the latter’s coast.
New Delhi also seeks to increase its economic engagement with Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia. Malaysia and Singapore are also home to a large Indian diaspora. At the same time, India wants to bolster cultural and historic ties with Asean countries including Cambodia through a focus on Buddhist and Hindu pilgrimage sites. As well, it is evaluating the last 12 years of its defence partnership with Vietnam and drawing up new plans for 2015-20.
Brig Rumel Dahiya, deputy director of the Institute of Defence Studies & Analysis (IDSA), said that in his interactions with the East Asian and Asean leaders, Modi would try to “broaden and deepen” trade and security partnerships. Recently, India appointed Suresh K Reddy as its special envoy for Asean.
India has signed free trade agreements (FTA) on goods and services and investment with Asean. While the goods agreement has been in effect for some time, the services and investment FTA is expected to take effect later this year after the parliaments of all Asean members ratify it.
Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has already visited Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam to lay the groundwork for Prime Minister Modi’s trips.
Before visiting the Asean members, Modi will be flying to a half-dozen Central Asian countries, as part of a trip that will take him to Russia from July 8-9.
The main goal of the premier’s visits to Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, according to Jha, would be to strengthen sharing of intelligence on terrorism and security to ward off any future Islamic State threat from Afghanistan. Tajiks and Uzbeks are minorities in Afghanistan while Turkmenistan and Tajikistan share a border with Kabul.
New Delhi also would like to tie up with Central Asian nations on education, agriculture, medicine, and promotion of Indian films. Modi may announce the posting of medicine and education consultants in Indian missions in Central Asian capitals to facilitate the travel of patients and students to India. He may also announce scholarships for Central Asian students to study in India.
This week Modi is in Bangladesh to sign pacts to swap certain territorial enclaves to resolve a 300-year-old dispute. He is also expected to sign agreements with his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina to share water from the Teesta River and on improved land links among Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal.
Dhaka is expected to give transit rights through its territory to India for the latter’s northeastern region and beyond. This would cut the travel distance between Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal state adjoining Bangladesh, and Agartala, the capital of Tripura state, by around 1,300 kilometres.
Apart from his Asian itinerary, the Indian prime minister is also scheduled to visit Israel, Turkey, Denmark and possibly Egypt, Palestine, Jordan and Iran during his second year in office.
Modi will be the first Indian prime minister to visit Tel Aviv. Strategic cooperation between the two countries has been on the rise since 1992 when New Delhi established diplomatic contact with Israel.
Swaraj said the PM’s visit to Tel Aviv would have no bearing on India’s support for the Palestinian cause. Israel is the third-largest supplier of arms to India. The two countries are also collaborating in the fields of counter-terrorism, agriculture, water and energy.
New Delhi up to now has avoided open engagement with Tel Aviv for fear of antagonising Gulf countries and its own Muslim population.
“India has had a subdued role until now, but Modi will be assertive. China should understand other countries’ concerns on core issues” PANKAJ JHA Indian Council of World Affairs