LOSERS

Economy

In one of the craziest panics ever, the media and many economists fretted over the bankruptcy of Greece, a country with no significant ties and a GDP with less than half the world ranking (51-22), and less than 30% the size, of Thailand. Meanwhile, stocks and confidence in the world’s second-biggest economy and new Thai BFF China were tanking faster than a poll on whether to buy submarines. Chinese stocks lost 30% of value in a relative heartbeat. The knock-on for Greece’s woes in Thailand: approximately zero. For China, directly in the Thai economy in so many ways, the Stock Exchange of Thailand fell, the value of the baht sank to 34-plus per US dollar and an immediate decision was made to double the deficit in next year’s budget to 4% of GDP. Foreign money is leaving Thailand quickly and unless China manages to restore confidence, quickly, Thailand’s faltering economy is going to suffer massive harm in coming weeks and months.

Fishermen

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha told officials to stand firm in the face of demands and even a strike by trawler operators who oppose the new licensing and regulation of fishing boats. The full law went into effect on July 1. It is a response to the “yellow card” threat by Europe to stop buying seafood from a messy Thai fishing industry. Hundreds of legal trawlers stayed in port for a week to sympathise with owners of 3,100 trawlers who have not got licences and have refused to install gear designed to monitor fishing and stop illegal trawling. Fishermen counted on skirting or ignoring the new regulations through the traditional means of bribery and soft enforcement. Gen Prayut insists the new regulations will be enforced forever, although that is a very long time. Critics believe enforcement will last about another 10 days, after a scheduled inspection by a European Union team.

Submarines

The newest Royal Thai Navy proposal to buy three Chinese submarines for US$325 million (11 billion baht) apiece — inflated to 12 billion baht in real money by some secret calculation — proved to be about as popular as miniskirts at a Culture Ministry seminar. Gen Prime Minister Prayut even pulled out a jaw-dropping nationalist trope: “Other nations will be in awe of us”. It didn’t work. The polls of course refused to measure the actual opposition but in regular and social media, it was virtually impossible to find support for the subs’ purchase. “Don’t compare the [submarine] purchase to the 30-baht health scheme,” the prime minister ordered. But everyone did, since Gen Prayut rubbished the universal health plan — and there was little doubt which was more popular.

Tipplers

Anti-alcohol forces won their biggest victory in an ongoing 30-year campaign when the Prime Minister’s Office issued an order to ban all sales of all forms of alcohol within 300 metres of any school. The ban is the work of the longtime abolition-controlled group called the Committee for Alcohol Beverage Control, which is chaired by the public health minister. The current minister, Rajata Rajatanavin, ignored pleas and claims from businessmen and their Thai Alcohol Beverage Business Association that the new law will immediately cut 125,000 jobs from the labour market. The law, presented as a way to discourage students from drinking, is part of a long-term effort by the Alcohol Watch Network prohibition group to ban alcohol entirely.