NCPO stumbles over obstacles on all fronts
Thai politics is about to take another crucial turn this week, according to a report in Siam Rath Weekly.
Several controversies looming for the government are threatening to turn the tide on Thai politics. These include its pick for the next army chief, the cabinet reshuffle and what the final draft charter will look like, according to the article “Dangerous Turn”.
On top of this is a wild-card attempt to strip former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of his rank as police lieutenant colonel.
“These four tasks loom like a formidable fortress, covering four main aspects of the country’s administration: security, economics, legal issues and political conflicts,” said the article.
In terms of security, the appointment of the new army chief could bring wrinkles in the supposedly seamless relations between the army, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the government.
The two leading candidates for the army’s top posts — Gen Thirachai Nakwanich and Gen Preecha Chan-o-cha — both have ties to top military leaders.
Assistant army chief Gen Thirachai is known as a favourite of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, while Gen Preecha is the PM’s younger brother.
Outgoing army commander Gen Udomdej Sitabutr will nominate the next army chief and will have no power base after his retirement. The appointment of the next army chief will be his only way to leave a big mark on a future government.
“This means the choice will have an impact on all power players,” the article said. The decision of who will be the next army chief could have a domino effect on the army’s succession plan.
The army may have prepared a power roadmap stretching up until the armed forces preparatory school’s Class 20, which means First Region Army Deputy Commander Maj Gen Apirat Kongsompong could take the reins. (Gen Thirachai is from Class 14 while Gen Preecha is a member of Class 15).
Meanwhile, economic problems remain a black hole for the government, with all eyes on the military regime’s economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula.
“Whether it is outside factors, including a downturn in the global economy, or internal factors, such as an inability to drive the domestic situation, PM Gen Prayut and MR Pridiyathorn can’t avoid responsibility over the state of the economy,’’ said the article.
MR Pridiyathorn is on good terms with DPM Prawit and his joining of the cabinet is said to be at the direct invitation of DPM Prawit. For PM Gen Prayut, however, NCPO adviser Somkid Jatusripitak features more prominently.
But history shows that MR Pridiyathorn and Mr Somkid are unlikely to be able to work harmoniously. “This awkwardness could pose a problem in PM Prayut’s cabinet reshuffle plan,” said the article.
Another key issue is the NCPO’s roadmap to democracy hinges on the draft charter. The draft has still not been finalised and has not won approval from all sides.
Some members of the National Reform Council actually vowed to reject the draft in a vote meant to approve it.
The move aligns with the campaign for “reform before election”, initiated by former protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who argues the reforms job is not yet done, so the country should not race into holding an election.
“Since some members of the NRC, Mr Suthep’s People’s Democratic Reform Committee, the government and NCPO are viewed as being on the same side, some red-shirt members consider these moves an attempt to seize power again,’’ the article said.
The emergence of former protest leader Suthep, who is viewed as part of the political conflict, is not beneficial to the Prayut government.
Whether or not it’s intentional, the move to strip Thaksin of his police rank has coincidentally become the talk of the town just as politics began to simmer.
“For whatever reasons, the move to revoke Thaksin’s police rank is like adding fuel to the fire. It could affect the government’s stability as the Prayut government enters its second year.”
Though the government is on a special expressway to power, it does not mean there are no risky turns waiting for it, the article said.
Thaksin steals
limelight
Why has the move to revoke the police rank of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra become such a big issue?
An article in Matichon Weekly asks why this matter has blown up to be such a major undertaking that Justice Minister Paiboon Koomchaya had to take care of it himself, said the article, “The aftermath of gratification”.
“Whatever angle it is seen from, this elaborate attempt to strip a police rank is a political move,’’ the article said.
If it is not, there is no reason why stripping the rank of a police lieutenant colonel who resigned from service and fled a jail sentence after being indicted by a court would need to be handled by the justice minister.
The next big question is, why has this issue taken priority over more pressing problems?
One theory is the rank-stripping move is an attempt to please the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy and People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
As the government is under attack on the economy and still faces pressure from the international community, ties of friendship are crucial.
“To strip Thaksin of his police rank should pacify these two groups. It will show the government is not going to collude with Thaksin,’’ the article said.
Another theory is that the rank-stripping saga is a way to drag “the ghost” of Thaksin back into the political sphere.
News of the ousted PM’s plight will help relieve pressure on the government, according to this theory.
Thaksin has kept a low profile and has chosen to stay silent politically. “This news vacuum has filled with stories about economic problems, the draft charter and international sanctions.’’
The military government is on the losing side as it tries to battle these issues.
Whipping up a political situation is a way to divert people’s attention away from the real problems, says the article. “The best choice for the government is Thaksin,’’ the story said.
If the rank-stripping game irks Thaksin and prompts the Pheu Thai Party and the red shirts to make political moves, it will be even better for the government.
“The news agenda will be full of Thaksin stories.”
But what the government has failed to consider is Thaksin may choose to stay still and play the role of a victim, reaping sympathy votes from his supporters and political centrists.
In fact, this has been the game played by Thaksin throughout the past two elections.
“Do not forget that Thais are soft-hearted. The aftermath [of the rank-stripping saga] could be revealed when people come out to vote, at the charter referendum or next election,’’ the story said.
3rd army excluded
No commanders from the Third Army Area have ever made it to army chief, said an article in The Nation Weekly.
The statement is based on an academic report entitled, “The Road to Army Commander Over Four Decades’’, by Wanwichit Boonprong at Rangsit University.
The race for the army’s top post has now boiled down to Gen Thirachai Nakwanich and Gen Preecha Chan-o-cha. While Gen Theerachai advanced in his career through the First Army, Gen Preecha climbed up the ranks in the Third Army.
According to the article, Thailand’s army chiefs from 1973 to 2010 have come from three groups of soldiers.
The first group includes those who grew from the First Army Area, responsible for Bangkok, the Central Plains and the Eastern region of the country.
The First Army Area has always played a key role whenever there have been coups or rebellions.
As many as eight army commanders have held the post of First Army Region commander.
The second group are those from the Second Army Area, or so-called rural commanders. The Second Army Area oversees the Northeast.
Since the area was once infiltrated by communist insurgents, soldiers deployed in this army area are usually well-versed in communicating with villagers and in psychological tactics.
The Special Force unit in Lop Buri is another pathway to growth for “rural soldiers’’ both in the army and politics. But no commanders from the Third Army Area have ever been appointed army commander, says the study.
The highest they advanced was to deputy army chief or assistant army chief.
The third group are commanders who worked their way up through command and staff functions. These are soldiers who take care of strategic deployment, general administration and budgeting.
Army commanders from this line were experienced in personnel, intelligence, operations and ordinance.
Former army chief Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon and Gen Pramon Phalasin are examples from this group. All three of them once served as the Chief of Joint Operations.