Slow exports hit job market
Poll finds industries running at low capacity
Thailand’s unemployment rate is expected to stay at a relatively high level over the next five years as a lack of business confidence and falling exports undermine production capacity and the job market, according to a survey by the Employers’ Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry (EconThai).
Vice-chairman Tanit Sorat said the country’s unemployment rate rose to 0.9% this year from 0.7% in the previous year.
The result was an average of 121,215 jobless people a month, largely due to weak exports.
The National Economic and Social Development Board said recently that export value would grow by 3% next year after a 5% contraction in 2015.
The EconThai survey covered 11 major industries, including labour-intensive automotive and electronics.
“Several industries have yet to run at full production capacity because of weak global demand, leading to falling exports,” Mr Tanit said.
Some industries are running as low as 30-35% of capacity, he said, citing rubber and chemicals as examples.
EconThai expects the outlook for private investment to remain unchanged in the first half of 2016 compared with the same period this year, signalling that employment will remain sluggish.
Overall business performance remains weak, the survey said.
In the first 10 months of this year, the number of companies that shut down or went bankrupt reached 14,000. That number is expected to rise to 15,163 by the end of the year.
Moreover, the number of new businesses registering with the Commerce Ministry fell by 12.8% in September and 3% in October.
“Those figures signal that the economy may not grow in the first half of 2016,” Mr Tanit said.
The survey did show some positive signs for the prospect of rising wages, with 70% of companies expected to raise pay by an average of 5%.
Some 20% of companies are expected to raise wages by 10%, while the remaining 10% have yet to make a decision.
Of the companies surveyed, 51% said they would pay a bonus to their employees, mostly at 1.0-1.5 times salary.
Some large businesses said they would pay a bonus at two times salary.
Some 10% of respondents said they would not pay a bonus to their employees, while the remaining 20% had not decided yet.