Consumers less confident
Global slowdown fears continue to resonate
Consumer confidence fell for the second straight month in February over concerns about the global and domestic economic outlook, falling exports, oil prices and the impact of the drought.
A survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) released yesterday showed the consumer confidence index had dropped to 74.7 points from 75.5 points in January this year and 76.1 in December 2015.
It was, however, still higher than in November, 74.6 points; October, 73.4 points; and September, 72.1 points.
Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research, said consumers felt the country’s economic recovery was slow and the effects of the drought had intensified.
Global economic risks and a drop in exports, coupled with low oil and crop prices, all served to f urther dampen expectations.
The Commerce Ministry reported last week that exports contracted more than expected in January, hitting their lowest l evel since November 2011, when severe flooding closed thousands of factories.
Shipments plunged by 8.91% year-onyear to US$15.7 billion.
January exports of agricultural and agribusiness products fell by 4.1% year-on-year to $2.46 billion, due mainly to lower shipments of rubber (-25.7%); tuna (-15.1%); frozen, processed shrimp (-19.2%); tapioca products (-19.6%); and frozen, processed chicken (-2.3%).
Exports of industrial products fell by 8.5% to $12.5 billion, led by weakness in oil-related products such as finished oil, chemicals and plastic pellets, as well as gold and electrical appliances, which fell sharply due to a shift in production bases.
Shipments fell for most markets except Indochina and Australia.
Exports to China, Thailand’s secondbiggest market after the US, dropped by 6.1% year-on-year in January. Shipments to Europe fell by 2.4%, while the US and Japan saw bigger drops of 8.5% and 10.1%, respectively.
Imports slipped 12.4% year-on-year to $15.5 billion, led by a 40.7% decline in fuel and a 15.3% drop in raw materials and semi-finished products.
Thailand still managed a January trade surplus of $238 million.
The Thai National Shippers’ Council also came out with a gloomy forecast on Tuesday, saying that shipments in the first quarter may fall by up to 5% as the slow global recovery takes its toll.
Thailand’s exports are projected to achieve growth of 1% in the best case by year-end.
“The world’s economy remains strained, leading global oil prices to stay perpetually low, which affects the purchasing power of oil-producing countries and oil companies,” said Mr Thanavath.
“Domestically, the drought is also worrisome,” he added. “We expect the drought may cause at least 70-100 billion baht worth of damage to the agricultural, industrial and service sectors.”