Candidates on parade
A rmy
chief Teerachai Nakwanich on Thursday paid an early morning call on Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, sparking a wave of speculation on what the future holds for the military government.
The army commander was thought to be there to discuss “matters of national interest”. It was speculated he briefed Gen Prayut about the state of political movements in the country, and in particular former Pheu Thai Party MP Watana Muangsook’s one-day “attitude adjustment” session with the military over his criticism of the government.
The two were also believed to have talked about the dissemination of the draft charter content and the military’s role in the vote at the referendum scheduled for the end of July.
However, Gen Teerachai may also have had other things on his mind like a mid-year military reshuffle due to be announced at the end of the month.
The reshuffle, although expected to be limited as it is typically intended for only minor mid-season changes, will decide the line of succession vital to the National Council for Peace and Order’s future before and after the election slated for the middle of next year.
The mid-season lists are being finalised before being handed to Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon. The shake-up will most likely be wrapped up and announced before the month is out, a military source said.
Although Gen Prawit has said the reshuffle will not involve top-level promotions connected to the army, the opposite may be true, the source said.
A few days before Gen Teerachai’s meeting with Gen Prayut, the premier had a talk with Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong Paojinda, the interior minister who is their brother-in-arms in the Burapa Phayak (Tiger of the East) military clique.
Their discussion probably revolved around the reshuffle issue, although no sources are able to confirm it.
The source said there are reasons Gen Prayut might be paying particular attention to the mid-season moves, given Gen Teerachai’s fast-approaching mandatory retirement at the end of September.
The source explained Gen Prayut could be eyeing a successor to Gen Teerachai and the succession needs planning.
Three names are tipped as final candidates: 1st Region Army commander Lt Gen Theppong Thippayachan; army chief-of-staff Gen Pisit Sitthisarn; and assistant army chief Gen Chalermchai Sitthisart.
The source said Gen Prayut could lean toward Lt Gen Theppong, his close aide in the Burapa Phayak ranks, whose retirement is two years away.
However, he needs to be elevated to full general and the mid-season reshuffle is the only time when he can be promoted to fourstar status that would allow him to become a serious contender for army chief.
Gen Pisit, who is due to retire next year, is also a Burapa Phayak member who has support from Gen Prawit. His only disadvantage is that he may not be Gen Prayut’s favourite to lead the army, which is the biggest and most powerful of the three branches of the armed forces, the source said. Perhaps the candidate with the least chance of becoming army chief is Gen Chalermchai, who is neither a Queen’s royal guard, nor a Burapa Phayak. His mandatory retirement comes at the end of September 2018.
Whoever replaces Gen Teerachai, according to the source, must have the NCPO’s complete trust in his loyalty. The NCPO must be able to take comfort in the thought that the new chief can handle political situations which might become volatile again after next year’s election.