Winter is coming, still
Following an eventful 2016 that featured seismic political shifts and numerous celebrity deaths, many of us greeted the New Year with hopes that better times lie ahead. But regardless what the fortune tellers say, 2017 could be the year of consequences, whether it’s the final outcome of Brexit or the impact of a Donald Trump presidency. Britain has yet to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, and the person who said that a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union could take up to 10 years has quit. Prime Minister Teresa May moved swiftly to calm tensions over the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers as ambassador to the EU by appointing career diplomat Sir Tim Barrow as his replacement. She still aims to bring a swift end to negotiations within two years, in line with EU rules, once she serves formal notice in March to start talks.
That could be wishful thinking if, as Sir Ivan has claimed, the UK still lacks a coherent negotiating strategy and the structure of its negotiating team is far from decided.
What will this mean for Asia and world trade this year? One thing for sure is that there will be more uncertainties surrounding trade deals with Europe as long as Brexit remains unresolved. Further trouble for the pound and the euro is also likely. Asian trade with Europe and the UK will definitely be more turbulent until a Brexit agreement is reached.
Looking further West, meanwhile, Donald Trump’s tweets are not doing any Asia any favours on the security front.
Many of you may have laughed when the US president-elect used Twitter to wish his “many enemies” a Happy New Year. But you probably weren’t laughing, especially if you live in South Korea and Japan, when he tweeted about North Korea’s nuclear capability.
Kim Jong-un is a different character from other dictators because he is more unpredictable, vindictive and brutal. The North Korean tyrant reportedly has had 340 people executed since he came to power in 2011 and purged five defence ministers. One of them was said to have been killed by an anti-aircraft gun at a military school in front of an audience that included his family. This is not someone you want to mess with.
During his New Year speech, Kim Jong-un delivered a message clearly directed at the White House. He claimed — though no one can really verify what he said — that Pyongyang is close to testing a long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The aim is clearly to show Americans the strength of his country, while also scaring the daylights out of South Korea. So how did the man who will soon become the leader of the free world respond?
As expected, Mr Trump shrugged it off and then tweeted, “It won’t happen!” What did he mean? Nobody knows and he didn’t explain. If it means that he had miraculously found a way to stop “it” from happening — sorry, having a hamburger with Mr Kim won’t do — then it would be good news.
Various military experts believe the North Korean nuclear programme is too advanced and protected to destroy by force since the key facilities are well-hidden and dispersed. Military action is limited because neither bunker-busting bombs nor black ops would guarantee permanent termination. It has to be completely wiped out to prevent a future nuclear counterattack.
What worries me is whether Donald Trump intends to mock the North Korean dictator.
Pyongyang’s last test in September produced a result that led most experts to believe the country now has a bomb more powerful than the one that destroyed Hiroshima. What it lacks is the technology and the missile that could deliver it as far as the US ... yet. So what does Mr Trump know that other people don’t?
The world needs to see a serious plan from Mr Trump to tackle an issue that could lead to nuclear devastation, not tweets to mock an unstable dictator with nuclear ambitions. Why? Because in less than two weeks Donald Trump will have his hands on the nuclear football and the last thing anyone wants to see is him having a quarrel with a crazy character who also has a bomb.
Here’s the thing: For all the talk about Brexit and Trump last year, not much actually happened. Many people thought the worst was over when the clock struck midnight on Dec 31, 2016. But no way Jose. Winter is coming. Readers can send their feedback or comments to nareeratw@Bangkokpost.co.th