Beijing plays, Hun Sen dances
The ever-contentious One China policy has flared up again, but this time the spark did not ignite over the Taiwan Strait or across the Pacific Ocean. Rather, it was here in Southeast Asia, Cambodia to be specific, when Prime Minister Hun Sen banned the Taiwanese and Tibetan flags. Speaking at a Cambodian-Chinese Association dinner on Feb 4, the veteran strongman described Taiwan as simply a province of China and said the flags of Taiwan and Tibet could not be raised in Cambodia, according to the Cambodia Daily.
“We should not do anything that affects the respect of China’s sovereignty and independence through shaking hands and stepping on feet. I cannot do it,” he said. “We need to respect the sovereignty of China, which places the same value on respecting Cambodia’s sovereignty too.”
He was quick to add that Cambodia still welcomed Taiwanese trade and investment, but it is increasingly clear that Hun Sen intends to strictly toe the line of the Communist Party of China.
This is not the first time that Phnom Penh’s subservience to Beijing has been on open display. You will recall how Cambodia, as the Asean chair in 2012, scuttled a joint communique by foreign ministers on the South China Sea dispute as the language would have made China uncomfortable. And in 2014, Hun Sen personally blocked a plan by the Taiwan External Trade Development Council to open an office in Phnom Penh.
It is understandable, up to a point, that Cambodia is inclined to comply with China’s demands as the latter is the biggest source of foreign investment in the country. But I would argue that this over-reliance puts Cambodia at risk of being labelled as China’s “loyal lackey”. The government in Phnom Penh appears unable to pursue an independent foreign policy as long as it wants Beijing to keep pumping in funds.
Such policy constraints suggest that the Cambodian government can be manipulated with financial incentives. The decision to gravitate toward China could spark further diplomatic rows between Cambodia and fellow Asean member states. This could ultimately exacerbate the uncertainty over Asean’s unity and China could use this opportunity to advance its interests in the region.
What is also crucial is the timing of Cambodia’s flag-banning decision, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University. This is because the ban on raising Taiwanese and Tibetan flags comes after the new Trump administration inched closer to Taiwan and, it is said, has been paying more attention to the decades-old Tibetan independence movement.
“This was Cambodia’s indication that it will stand by China should the Trump administration follow through with its reconsideration of the One China policy,” said Dr Thitinan.
Perhaps as a test of the waters before he was inaugurated last month, Donald Trump controversially said the One China policy was open to negotiation, prompting a strong response by the irked Chinese authorities that such an issue is “non-negotiable” and “there is only one China in the world”.
Even before he made his provocative One China remark, Mr Trump had raised several eyebrows in Beijing. The former property tycoon broke formal Sino-US protocol by speaking directly with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on the telephone, a move that China considered as a severe threat to its One China principle.
With the US coming into the picture, it is crystal-clear that Cambodia has preferred to side with China. The January cancellation of Angkor Sentinel, a routine joint military exercise between Cambodian and US forces, further underlined where Hun Sen’s sympathies lie. What is interesting is that the cancellation came just weeks after the Sino-Cambodian “Golden Dragon” drills.
Cambodia’s decision to distance itself could be because the US, using Western democracy as its premise, has hounded Phnom Penh over the years for its poor track record on human rights abuses, suppression of political dissidents, and corruption. On the other hand, China is willing to overlook such failings and provide a helping hand to perpetuate Hun Sen’s political iron grip.
Hun Sen and his officials should tread carefully over their reliance on China. While lucrative financial gains are hard to resist, Cambodia risks becoming a pawn on China’s chessboard, forced to obey every command issued from Beijing.
But perhaps an increasingly authoritarian state like Cambodia is comfortable with being labelled a satellite, where money and power, and not rules-based good governance and transparency, are the norm.