Propose a deal with Beijing

Thailand is currently welcoming Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, on his first official visit. Mr Duterte flew to Bangkok last year to pay his respects after the death of King Bhumibol. In Asean terms, his “meet and greet”, post-election tour is later than usual, but then the president has some perplexing problems back home. One of them is how to deal with China.

Last week, China announced it would enter the one part of the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines. Scarborough Shoal, off the Palawan coast, is to become a Chinese meteorological station. This was announced without notice, or consultation with the “Sansha City” administration China set up to cement its claim over the entire South China Sea by physical occupation.

It was the first time China has announced any plans for Scarborough Shoal, a natural reef-bound harbour in the eastern section of the Spratly Islands. The move was seen by most observers as somewhat high-handed. China has made a big show of Mr Duterte’s policies in the South China Sea. Where his predecessor as president, Benigno Aquino III, was aggressive in facing Beijing, Mr Duterte has been extremely passive.

Nevertheless, both legally and as a Filipino leader, President Duterte cannot be seen to be simply surrendering Scarborough Shoal. The reef was the centrepiece of the Philippines’ presentation to the international court last year. The court ruled that China had no clear backing to claim the entire sea; Beijing stated it was not bound by such a ruling.

Immediately before he left for Myanmar and Thailand on Sunday, Mr Duterte remarked on this diplomatic puzzle. He appeared neither strong nor innovative. “We cannot stop China from doing this thing,” he told the media. “What will I do, declare war against China?” No, of course not. But there are avenues open that Mr Duterte is not exploring.

The first seems obvious. China insists that it will establish an environmental monitoring station at Scarborough Shoal, even if it requires force. Instead of lamenting this in such hand-wringing fashion, President Duterte should take the extremely obvious step of using the Chinese action against Beijing. The world needs more and better meteorological information and monitors, so China should make the Scarborough Shoal project into an international effort. Filipino academics and scientists should press China to be included, and have the right to complain globally if Beijing turns them down.

It is by now a fixture of East Asian diplomacy that disputed areas be administered as if they are jointly owned. Such action admittedly delays final resolution over territorial disputes. But they have the huge advantage of not only avoiding direct confrontation and open warfare, joint administration provides benefits for both countries involved. China, which has steadfastly refused to negotiate with all claimants to South China Sea areas — Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan and the Philippines — has insisted on bilateral talks only.

Mr Duterte would do worse than demand such two-party talks immediately, over the Chinese plans for Scarborough Shoal. Such programmes have already been successful. Thailand has such agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia. China would lose face by turning down a demand by the Philippines for a joint meteorological project at Scarborough Shoal.

One also hopes that Thai officials have been discussing the Asean plans for a true and enforceable code of conduct with Beijing in the South China Sea. Beijing has tried to talk a good game, but the result until now has proved China’s huge reluctance to agree to peaceful resolution that requires it to compromise its territorial gains. There is much to gain with making a deal with China over Scarborough Shoal, and much face lost for China if it refuses.

China has made a big show of Mr Duterte’s policies.