Asean’s role with N Korea

While Thailand has been partying, the first winds of war in years have been stirred in Northeast Asia. US President Donald Trump has effectively warned North Korea that further nuclear or ballistic missile tests will have physical consequences. Pyongyang leader Kim Jong-un has replied with predictable threats of military retaliation. The region is on tenterhooks, partly because China still refuses to step up responsibly.

On Saturday, North Korea celebrated the birth in 1912 of Kim Il-sung. He is both the grandfather of the current leader and the founder in 1948 of the country also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The current leader has stepped up the North’s programme of developing nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles.

A day after Pyongyang defiantly showcased its ballistic arsenal at a giant military parade to mark the anniversary on Saturday, a fresh North Korean missile test failed yesterday when it exploded after launch, the US military said. That will now doubt put a dent in North Korea’s pride, which in recent days has included bellicose threats against the US to retaliate if it is attacked, as tensions on the Korean Peninsula intensify.

Three weeks ago, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, in effect, the US was no longer going to threaten or to merely lament the North Korean military threat. He declared that diplomacy had failed with Pyongyang and “strategic patience”, he said, was over. US military action was on the table. Japan held its first antiaircraft drill ever, in a region facing Korea. The US moved a major naval task force, including the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and submarines into waters off North Korea.

The good news, if it is called that, is the US is unlikely to make any move against North Korea, for almost any reason, without direct participation with South Korea and Japan. Those countries, too, have told the new US leadership they are equally fed up with North Korea’s continued military build-up.

Of course, there would be no such tension and uncertainty if the Kim dynasty had chosen to step into its rightful role as a member of the world community. Isolationist bellicosity has become a feature of North Korean “diplomacy” since the Korean war.

China’s response has been far more pro forma than proactive. Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday stated the North Korean tension must be stopped before it reaches an “irreversible and unmanageable stage”. This passive statement isn’t helpful. Indeed, virtually any government spokesman in any world capital could say exactly the same. China, however, is directly involved and the whole world has the right to expect more.

Nothing truly justifies China’s inaction. It is the major power of the region, and is seeking world respect as it grows to superpower status. China has a clear policy of a nonnuclear Korean Peninsula, and, in North Korea a close ally which is developing nuclear weapons. China has placed punishing sanctions on North Korea. It has stopped all imports of coal, Pyongyang’s chief export. But President Xi Jinping has refused to step directly into the escalating and dangerous confrontation between Pyongyang and the three allies — Japan, South Korea and the United States.

There is still plenty of room for diplomacy, especially from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). The group once attempted to act as go-between, with Thailand acting as the official sponsor of North Korea’s entry into the Asean Regional Forum. As Asean leaders are to meet at the summit in Manila later this month, they should grab this chance to explore a larger role in preventing what could possibly explode into a regional crisis.

Isolationist bellicosity has become a feature of North Korean ‘diplomacy’ since the Korean War.