Could US really shield Alaska from a missile hit?

WASHINGTON: On Tuesday Alaskans awoke to the news that Pyongyang had test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile with a probable range of 5,500km — enough to reach their shores.

The US military has faith that its hightech defensive systems could fend off any attack from North Korea. “It’s something we have confidence in,” said Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis, who called the latest development a “nascent threat”.

But other observers are not so sure, rattled by the pace of Kim Jong-un’s missile programme and his stated aim of building a nuclear-tipped ICBM.

“Now more than ever, it’s imperative for Alaskans and the rest of the nation that we be prepared,” tweeted Senator Dan Sullivan, one of several Alaskan congressmen who backed a bipartisan bill last month aimed at expanding US missile defenses.

The catastrophic scenario of having to stop an incoming ICBM as it hurtles through space was put to the test in May, when the military successfully launched a GMD interceptor from the California base.

The missile blasted outside Earth’s atmosphere and smashed into a dummy ICBM target, destroying it in a direct collision — a move akin to hitting a bullet with another bullet. But the GMD system has had a chequered record in previous test, failing in earlier launches against slowermoving targets. And it could be overwhelmed by a barrage of incoming missiles.

That is why Joel Wit, a co-founder of the 38 North program of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said he was not fully confident in US anti-missile capabilities.

He sees a risk that North Korea could build enough missiles to overwhelm US defences, and and that one could slip through the defensive net in a phenomenon known as “leakage”. “In the case of a conflict, leakage with nuclear weapons is not a good thing,” Mr Wit said.

Wit had previously said he didn’t think North Korea would be able to deploy any nuclear-tipped ICBMs until late 2020 or soon after, but all bets are off given the latest test.

“It’s quite possible the North Koreans could deploy much sooner than then, and do that for the shock effect,” he said.