ABOUT Politics
Military will cast shadow over next govt, says Pheu Thai Veteran politician keen to become Bangkok’s next governor Khunying Sudarat’s political ambitions may well be realised
Prayut unlikely to fade away
The government will still be dominated by the “men in green” after the next election with the influence of the military and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha unlikely to fade from national politics, Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Chaturon Chaisaeng predicts.
A vocal critic of the government, Mr Chaturon said all the essential elements and apparatus seen in Thai politics today can give a taste of what is likely to come after the election.
The pillars of the country’s administration, known as the “five rivers”, lay the foundation for a grand scheme to have a non-MP ascend to the role of prime minister, Mr Chaturon said.
The five rivers are the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), the National Reform Steering Assembly (NRSA), the cabinet, and the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC).
In his view, from the constitution down to the reform blueprint and election-related laws, the situation does not look very accommodating for the country’s full return to democracy anytime soon, and even after the general election that is expected sometime next year.
The former deputy prime minister theorised that since the five rivers were not exactly designed to help an elected-MP become premier in the next poll, it makes sense to think that Gen Prayut is not very interested in running for office.
The 20-year national strategy and the national reform proposals have been formulated systematically as if to limit the functions of political parties, opening a wide gap for an “outsider” candidate to be voted in by the next parliament as prime minister.
If Gen Prayut does in fact decide to run in the next election, any such grand scheme would go awry, Mr Chaturon argued.
The key Pheu Thai member said he could not picture Gen Prayut donning a political party cap and shaking hands with constituents in a campaign rally.
“It just wasn’t part of [his] plan,” he said. Even if Gen Prayut has entertained thoughts of seeking an MP’s seat, the deadline for that passed on Tuesday.
The new charter stipulates that any members of the current government must vacate their posts within 90 days of the constitution taking effect.
Mr Chaturon said the next Senate, with 250 members, will likely be the main support base for Gen Prayut to serve as a non-MP prime minister.
However, any move to push for an outsider premier would need to be spearheaded by a coalition of parties holding a majority in parliament.
But analysts say the organic bill that deals with the election of MPs, drafted by the CDC and requiring approval from the NLA, reflects
sweeping changes to the electoral landscape. As every vote will count in the next poll, smalland medium-sized parties stand to be the chief beneficiaries. They are forecast to garner more seats, at the expense of large parties.
These smaller parties will more or less decide the shape of a coalition government, analysts say.
Former NRSA member Sompong Sakawee said earlier that two other ex-members of the assembly, Lt Gen Thawatchai Samutsakorn and Col Suchart Chantharachotikul, plan to join him in forming a small political party.
He insisted this would not serve as a proxy for the military, even though some senior officers have expressed interest in joining. Yet he said he would be open to an alliance with a military-formed party in the future.
Mr Chaturon said some medium-sized parties that favour Gen Prayut as a non-MP prime minister may prove a “willing spare part” in the formation of the next government. That would effectively leave Pheu Thai, which headed the previous government, out in the cold.
Surin says he’s ‘man for the job’
Veteran politician Surin Pitsuwan is the first to publicly throw his hat in the ring for the next governor election even though the Bangkok poll is not yet in sight.
In a recent interview with the Bangkok Post, the former Democrat MP declared he is ready to run for Bangkok governor and was keen to be part of efforts to restore international confidence in Thailand.
His election platform will focus on making the capital an internationally recognised smart city, and a clean and safe environment with transparency and efficiency in management, where the people are given a participatory role and foreign expats will be encouraged to take part.
“Bangkok should serve as a pilot area to create a network of major cities with transparency and efficiency in management and where people can scrutinise things in the checks-and-balances process. This will also help with national reform efforts.
“I am not interested in running for Bangkok governor only to win the post, but I want to show that defence of democracy is possible. If we can reform Bangkok, we can also reform Thailand,” Mr Surin was quoted as saying.
While Mr Surin’s open interest in contesting the local poll is widely welcomed by political observers, two key players appear to stand in his way.
The first is the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
Many political observers seem to agree the city poll should take place ahead of the general election, to mark the return of democratic rule, yet still the regime keeps its silence. The other is the Democrat Party. According to political sources, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva sees Mr Surin as a high-calibre candidate for the Bangkok governor post, but also believes Mr Surin has a wealth of experience to contribute to the country.
In Mr Abhisit’s view, the former secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has carved out a reputation for himself as a high-power international affairs expert and has the credentials to take up the challenge of becoming education minister, sources said.
This is probably one of many reasons why the Democrat Party chooses not to respond to Mr Surin’s interest in standing in the local poll, not to mention the fact that the NCPO’s ban on political activities remains in effect.
Another reason is that the incumbent governor, Pol Gen Aswin Kwanmuang, despite being appointed to the post by the NCPO, was a former deputy governor on the Democrat Party ticket.
Pol Gen Aswin served as deputy to MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra who was removed from duty as Bangkok governor last year.
According to party sources, as long as the regime holds back from giving the green light to local elections, the Democrat executives will not risk putting the issue on the table. Mr Surin’s potential candidacy will remain water-cooler gossip until then.
However, the prospect of Mr Surin running for governor under the party’s banner was the topic of informal talks long before his media interview.
However, his talks have been limited to inner circles to avoid drawing premature criticism against Mr Surin.
Now t hat Mr Surin is becoming more candid about his election plan, the race for Bangkok governor is on, if only informally, and political parties and groups interested in the governor poll will be scrambling to find candidates to compete against him.
Thaksin support rumours rife
Pheu Thai Party heavyweight Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan has seen her political profile lifted following her visit last month to China with questions now answered over who organised the trip for her.
Khunying Sudarat has been touted as contender for the Pheu Thai Party leadership as speculation is now rife that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was backing her bid to take over the party’s reins.
However, critics predicted she would have some major hurdles to overcome.
It is one thing to be anointed by Thaksin as a potential candidate for the leadership, but it is another to demonstrate her capacity to win over party members.
One way to have them come down on her side is to show how “versatile” she is in initiating and advocating matters of national interest and translating them into action.
She must also be able to rub shoulders with people beyond the border and play the right diplomatic cards.
Khunying Sudarat and six other Pheu Thai politicians recently went on a study trip to Beijing at the invitation Song Tao, head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China.
Apart from meeting Mr Song, the delegates also met with leading business leaders running extensive franchises which expressed interest in buying organic food from Thailand.
Khunying Sudarat said she felt excited and heartened to be of help in advertising farm products with lucrative prospects for Thai farmers. Agro industry is an area close to her heart as she used to serve as agriculture minister under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration.
She insisted she tried to negotiate trade deals with China although she currently has no political title in the government so to speak of.
The Beijing visit has set the stage for her to showcase her political finesse and impress watchers eager to weigh in on her chance of leading the Pheu Thai Party into the next election battle.
Observers agreed that once the National Council for Peace and Order lifts the ban against political parties holding meetings and Pheu Thai is free to elect its new leader, Khunying Sudarat could well stand first in the queue to clinch the party leadership.
She appears to have won Thaksin’s trust to return the party to its former glory in the next election. Quite evident was Thaksin’s blessing for Khunying Sudarat as the delegates accompanying her on the trip to China, one of Thailand’s biggest trading partners, included Pansak Winyarat, one of Thaksin’s closest aides, who may have been sent to guide Khunying Sudarat on issues of trade and diplomacy, according to a party source.
Khunying Sudarat may be treading a surefooted step toward the Pheu Thai leadership. Before the China study tour, she is believed to have travelled to most of the provinces to get acquainted and re-acquainted with party members whose support will prove a vital buoy for her bid to head the party.
Also, there has been no resistance from party stalwarts to her running for the party leadership.
Just as Khunying Sudarat’s star may be rising, the door has shut on former premier Yingluck Shinawatra making a political comeback since she has been impeached by the National Legislative Assembly over her alleged negligence in running the ricepledging scheme and banned from politics for five years.
Ms Yingluck told the Bangkok Post the party runs a system capable of screening qualified candidates and picking the best among them. She, however, is in no position to direct or get involved in political affairs due to the ban.
She said she has no business competing with anyone in the political arena, either in or outside of the party.