Regaining some balance

The recently concluded visit by Prime Minister and coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha to the United States has helped clarify many questions about Thailand’s geopolitical positioning that Thais have asked since the military government seized power. Thailand had been one of the staunchest supporters of the US in the Asean region. But in recent years the close relationship the countries had built over nearly two centuries had begun to sour, mainly due to the many coups in Thailand and US allegations of human rights abuses.

The visit to the US by Gen Prayut was at the invitation of US President Donald Trump. During the meeting at the White House, Gen Prayut invited Mr Trump to visit Thailand, which if he accepts, would help the relationship recover somewhat.

Relations between Thailand and the United States took a significant turn for the worse when Gen Prayut staged the coup in May 2014 following years of colourcoded political conflict. As a result of the coup, relations between Thailand and the US tanked as the then Barack Obama administration curtailed dealings with non-democratic regimes.

Amid the disapproval from the US and also the European Union, Thailand started to move closer to China as was evident from the various investment deals undertaken since the military regime took power.

Lately though, Thailand has adopted a policy, similar to what it did in the past, of trying to be a balancing force among various global powers. Despite being seen as having close ties with China, Thailand has managed to reassure Japan. Earlier this year, a large Thai delegation went to Japan to assure their Japanese counterparts about Thailand’s future objectives. The visit was reciprocated by a delegation of nearly 500 representatives of Japanese companies who visited Thailand last month.

Then came the trip to the US early this week on which Gen Prayut was accompanied by some leading Thai businessmen who have already invested in the US or who are planning further investment. Close to US$6 billion has already been invested by Thai companies in the US and more such investments are planned in the years ahead.

These “new” investments are not really new, as most have been in the pipeline for months if not years. But the fact that the Thai delegation repackaged them as new made Mr Trump happy, as he too has a country to please.

Take for example the purchase of 155,000 tonnes of coal from the US by Siam Cement Plc. The firm already imports close to 6 million tonnes of coal per year and therefore a fresh purchase from the US accounts for a mere 2.6% of its annual purchases.

Other deals announced during the US trip are still up in the air as PTT Global Chemical Plc’s planned investment of 200 billion baht in a petrochemical plant in the US is still in the study phase.

But the fact that some in Gen Prayut’s cabinet know how to market the country is a good sign. In order to be successful Thailand needs good ties with all the world’s powers and must not align itself with one of many emerging ones.

Thailand has always had a way of juggling and managing to strike a geopolitical balance among the big boys. After more than three years under the military regime, during which time the country was being viewed as going way off the mark by being too close to China, there’s some sense the country is starting regain its balance on the geopolitical tightrope.

The fact that some in Gen Prayut’s cabinet know how to market the country is a good sign.