Grand plans mean little to the poor

If the government is not suffering from irrational exuberance, then something must have gone amiss. For it’s bothersome to see Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak declare there will be no poor people in Thailand next year, only to be met with the scathing response: “Of course, all the poor will have died by then.”

While there always seems to be a certain disconnect between what the government claims and what the public feel, this difference of opinion is particularly strong when it comes to the economy.

The government has boasted on many occasions that it has worked hard to help the poor attain a state of well-being while it seeks to shift the export-led, labourintensive economy to a higher-value, digital one.

Many major schemes have been announced. Back in 2015, when Mr Somkid had just joined the military regime, there was an attempt to nurture innovation and groom start-ups.

The former finance minister envisioned growing an “ecosystem” of small innovative companies. He also insisted that future economic policy would involve fewer stimulus programmes and more reforms aimed at rebuilding the country’s competitiveness and reducing income inequality.

Before anyone ever saw this so-called “ecosystem” of innovative unicorns, the government appeared to shift the focus of its economic policy to “megaprojects”. High-speed trains and mass transport projects became the government’s hallmark policies as one minister after another proclaimed that these projects would bring us economic growth and better living standards.

There was also the Pracharath, or public-private collaboration, model for better governance. Apart from fancy infographics about vertical versus horizontal governance (what exactly do these terms mean?), several newsletters about the project’s activities and press conferences, it seems there have been few tangible benefits for ordinary citizens.

Then, the whole economic phalanx seemed to morph into the Thailand 4.0 fan club. Again, promises have been many: of free and fast Wi-Fi services, of people enjoying a much higher income per capita, of smart enterprises and highvalued services.

At the same time, the government promoted Special Economic Zones which seem to target each area’s resources and existing strengths. And then, the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) came along.

According to the Board of Investment (BoI), the EEC is the country’s future. The project will be the incubator for five future sectors: robotics, medical, aviation, biochemicals and digital.

Everything looks and sounds good except when placed in the context of how ordinary people will benefit.

More importantly, it is increasingly difficult to see how the government’s diverse policies and projects will come together to help the poor and reduce income inequality. How do these projects constitute a reform of the economy or pave the way for a development model that is more inclusive of the entire population, that can redistribute wealth to the millions of Thais who account for less than 10% of GDP?

“How can Thailand develop if we don’t raise their incomes, if these people have no purchasing power?” Mr Somkid himself said back in 2015.

What is intriguing is that the economy seems to be doing well at the moment, at least on the surface. Growth in the third quarter rose to 4.3%, the best in 4.5 years. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness index saw Thailand’s ranking move from 34 last year to 32. Still, one opinion poll after another indicates that economic hardship and livelihood problems are what the people would most like the government to address.

Last week, Mr Somkid said the government will inject 100 billion baht into local administration organisations to spend on projects to spur the economy. Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith also said the ministry has set aside 300 billion baht for transport infrastructure projects next year, in addition to the 745 billion baht already set aside for projects under the EEC.

That’s a lot of money to inject into the economy. Whether such massive stimuli will ensure that the poor in Thailand will become rich next year is highly questionable.

As many as 14 million people registered as being poor to qualify for state aid and the government has made little if any attempt to reduce structural inequalities whether in wealth, income or education.

For now, all we can do is wait and see whether next year will be the year that the poor finally make some gains.