Rodgers returns for Packers, but can he get them to the play-offs?
Aaron Rodgers is back. But is it too late for his Green Bay Packers? Rodgers, the team’s star quarterback and a two-time NFL Most Valuable Player, broke his collarbone in Week Six. Losing such a crucial player meant the Packers’ season was quickly written off by just about everyone, despite their 4-2 record.
But lo and behold, the Packers managed to hang around the NFC play-off race, going 3-4 with Brett Hundley at quarterback. Hundley’s numbers were not great, but he and the team were good enough to stay alive and give Rodgers the opportunity to return as the saviour.
Now Rodgers is off injured reserve and has been cleared to play on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. The team has not announced if he will start this week, but fans are screaming for his return.
It would come just in time. The Packers barely beat the 0-12 Cleveland Browns in overtime last Sunday.
“Watching him in practice and what he’s been able to do these past couple weeks, getting more and more reps in practice and throwing on the pads, I think it’s a good sign,” linebacker Clay Matthews told reporters. “I’m not going to speak on his behalf, but we sure hope he’s ready, and if he is, we’re going to expect the Aaron of old.”
Coach Mike McCarthy said: “There’s a number of medical opinions that will be involved in a decision, so at this time, I do not have a clean decision for you or an update. That’s where it stands.”
So, will Rodgers’ expected return catapult the Packers into the play-offs?
Rodgers should provide a significant upgrade from Hundley. Before his injury this season, he was averaging a strong 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt, right in line with his typical recent figures. Hundley posted a poor 5.3. Rodgers had 13 touchdowns against three interceptions before getting hurt; Hundley’s ratio was eight to eight.
But the wild-card race is crowded; there are three teams ahead of the Packers at 9-4 or 8-5, and two other 7-6 teams. Only two of those will get in. The New York Times playoff Machine gives the Packers only a nine percent chance of getting into the postseason. Fivethirtyeight.com is even less optimistic, rating their chance at six percent.
With that many candidates, the calculus is fairly simple: The Packers are probably going to have to win all three of their remaining games. But if they do, they have a very good chance indeed: 92 percent, according to the Machine website.
Of course, the news that a team only has to win out does not make it so. The Packers will begin with a stern test against the Panthers in Charlotte on Sunday. At 9-4, the Panthers are fighting for a division title.
Few players can affect a betting line as much as Rodgers; when he was hurt, the line on the team’s next game shifted by 10 points immediately. The line for Sunday’s game, surely influenced by Rodgers exuberance, opened with Carolina favoured by only one or two. But hard-nosed bettors have come down heavily for the Panthers. The line has moved significantly, to as much as six.
The Packers then get to return home, but must play the Minnesota Vikings, who lead the division by three games and look like Super Bowl contenders. Then it is back on the road again to play the Detroit Lions, who, like the Packers, are 7-6 and fighting for the play-offs.
That makes three tough games. Even with Rodgers under centre, it is hard to see a clear path to 3-0.
But Rodgers has done something like this before. Last season, with the team 4-6, he spoke of running the table. Remarkably, the Packers did, winning six consecutive games and advancing to the conference championship.
Could the Packers sneak in with a 2-1 record this season? It’s not impossible, but they would need a lot of help, including a string of losses by teams like the Lions, the Dallas Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks. The Machine says that if the Packers must lose, it would be best to lose to the Vikings, who they aren’t going to catch anyway. In that situation, the Packers have at least a puncher’s chance: about 8 percent.
Rodgers is excited to be back, and loyal Packers fans are thrilled. But the team still has a mountain to climb.