PM plots path to post-election power

ANALYSIS: Gen Prayut has long been sowing the seeds of his bid to maintain control, writes Wassana Nanuam

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha’s New Year remark that he was a soldier-turned-politician may have surprised some but it was far from unexpected. It is the first time since seizing power in May 2014 that Gen Prayut has distanced himself from the barracks. Until now he has kept politics at arm’s length, insisting he was a military man.

“I have to change because I am no longer a soldier. I am a politician who used to be a soldier,” Gen Prayut said on Jan 3 when he returned to office after the holiday.

At least two major parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai, have reacted positively to his recent admission, seeing it as an assurance that the much-delayed national election, tentatively scheduled for November this year, will happen.

It is interesting that Gen Prayut, who has been openly critical of politicians over the past few years, has made such a remark.

Some political analysts believe Gen Prayut has already decided he will remain in politics after the general election, which is what led him to make his claim.

A source close to Government House said Gen Prayut’s words were an attempt to lessen pressure on the regime and reduce resistance against the military ahead of the elections.

“He wants to move away from his image as the leader of a military government which may cause political parties to gang up against the military,” the source said.

Still, the armed forces have insisted they will continue to support the regime regardless of any change in Gen Prayut’s status and have not ruled out the possibility of working with him again in the future if he returns as premier.

But how he will go about retaining power remains to be seen. A politician is usually referred to as someone who seeks political office through popular election of some kind.

But Gen Prayut cannot field himself to contest the national polls as he, a member of the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), refused to resign from the post within 90 days of the new charter coming into effect. That deadline has long passed.

The only way he can return to politics after an election is through “special means”.

And, coincidentally, the charter provides an alternative route for him to assume the premiership without standing in the polls.

Gen Prayut’s move comes amid reports that efforts are under way to form a political party which will support his bid to become an “outsider” prime minister after the election.

Under the charter, a non-MP can be chosen as prime minister if he or she receives the support of not less than 375 MPs and senators out of the 750 parliamentary members, or 500 MPs and 250 senators. Meanwhile, under the charter provision, those 250 senators will be appointed by a military regime-installed mechanism at the start of a five-year transition period.

Even though Gen Prayut has never admitted that he might become a nonelected “outsider” premier after the general election, he has not denied it either, preferring to say that his fate depends on future situations.

His remark over the weekend that Thailand wants a Thai-style democracy could certainly imply a non-elected prime minister leading a coalition government.

Analysts believe this remark was also intended to take the heat off the military regime ahead of the planned elections.

Political observers seem in agreement that Gen Prayut has been acting like a politician for some time now, especially after a series of mobile cabinet meetings held in the provinces.

The retired army chief, who is known to be grumpy when taking questions from the media, is unusually friendly and animated while visiting locals. He smiles and happily flashes the “I love you” sign wherever he goes.

His meet-and-greet approach, according to political observers, reminds them of the way politicians work to impress and woo voters. In addition, Gen Prayut usually travels to the provinces to deliver good news — big funds for local development projects.

After four years as the army chief and more than three years as the premier, he has mastered the art of courting the media in a fashion akin to a seasoned career politician.

Gen Prayut has urged the public to not detest politics because it is part of life, and his new confidence in placing himself within that context was by no means a slip of the tongue, according to political analysts.

Moreover, his remarks were made after Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda said Gen Prayut might have run out of support when the premier paid him a courtesy visit before New Year.

Critics believe that this is why the regime is rolling out pracha rat schemes, which are similar to populist programmes introduced by previous governments.

After conceding he is a politician, Gen Prayut will need votes and a support base, and it is no surprise to see him pushing schemes that have mass appeal among voters.