Taking a punt on social media

The political scene was abuzz this week with rumour, speculation and suspicion following reports that ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was in Hong Kong to meet bigwigs from the Pheu Thai Party who were ready to fly off there to see him.

It has been reported that Pheu Thai’s de facto leader has a new policy to share with key party members to battle the regime that has signalled an interest in returning to power after the next general election.

According to political observers, the military government is going at full throttle to win public support and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s remark that he has “turned into a politician” should not be taken lightly given recent developments, including the 90-day extension of the enforcement of the organic bill on the election of MPs.

Critics speculate that the extension, which will delay the election to February next year, is to facilitate the regime’s ambition to set up a party to contest the polls.

According to political sources, Thaksin who believes he retains strong popularity, is considering shifting away from conventional vote-wooing methods and plans to invest in social media more heavily in the upcoming election campaign. The fugitive leader believes using social media to solicit votes is more cost-effective than deploying political canvassers on door-knocking campaigns.

However, the change is said to have frustrated many Pheu Thai politicians who remain loyal to the party despite being approached by those in power to switch allegiance after the coup.

According to the sources, this group of politicians is confident the party has maintained its strongholds in the provinces and they hope to return to the House of Representatives under its banner largely because Pheu Thai has solid financial support. Threatened by a lack of funding, some are said to be having second thoughts about their political future with the party.

Thaksin’s idea to rely heavily on social media platforms is also threatening to alienate Pheu Thai’s political allies in several provinces such as Nakhon Pathom, Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Chon Buri and Rayong. Those in the lower parts of the North and the Northeast are also said to be recoiling.

There are at least 70 former MPs loyal to Pheu Thai in those provinces. And if they are turning away from Pheu Thai, the party will face a crisis in the elections. If the politicians decide to part company with Pheu Thai and it fields new candidates in the next polls, the new candidates would not stand a chance against these veterans.

Several opinion polls indicate that the Prayut-led administration’s approval rating is sliding. At the same time, some polls predict Pheu Thai would win the election if the vote was held today.

However, the sources reckon the planned change to employing more aggressive social media tactics to woo voters in order to “cut costs” may not bode well for the party.

Political analysts seem to agree that the policy change could cause the party’s popularity to plummet and Pheu Thai would face an uphill battle to win a mandate. In their opinion, there is no better way for parties to engage with canvassers in election campaigns than to give them solid funds — that is always how election campaigns have operated.

While social media has so far proved to be a powerful tool in several social campaigns, their effectiveness in driving a political cause remains in doubt, according to political observers. And the fugitive ex-leader could find himself in a “surprise” situation if he gives up the old-school door-to-door trick when the election campaigning hit high gear.