Groups fragmented as elections approach
BAGHDAD: Long beset by toxic divisions, Iraq seems to be growing even more fragmented ahead of national elections scheduled for May, with Iranian influence set to grow and the minority Sunnis seething as they fend for themselves in areas of the country shattered by the three-year war against the Islamic State group.
The Sunnis, many of them in displacement camps, bore the brunt of the war’s destruction and have been left so bereft that many don’t even have the papers needed to register to vote. If they don’t end up feeling the vote was fair, that could badly undermine the international community’s goal of bringing about the more inclusive government critical to maintaining a unified state and avoiding a repeat of the IS disaster.
Adding to the volatile mix are the Iranian-backed Shia militias, now even more politically involved, which are allied with but not controlled by the Shia-led Baghdad government, and appear set to gain influence that would alarm many in the region trying to check the power of Shia, non-Arab Iran.
If divisions among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds persist they could lead to more protracted talks to form a new government, potentially delaying the colossal task of rebuilding Iraq after IS overran nearly a third of the country in 2014, mostly Sunni towns, and then hung on as a US-led coalition surrounded and bombarded the areas they controlled.
The extremist group was able to at least initially benefit from some popular support among Sunnis. After the ouster of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, many Sunnis felt marginalised as parties led by Shia were able to win elections by sheer numbers; Sunnis, in turn, felt they had lost their fair share of power.
Sunnis are worried that the Shia influence mainly of the Iran-backed militias will grow in their areas if the Shia-backed Sunni candidates win, and that will make it hard for them to come together in the future.
Aware of the problem, politicians now appear to be trying to distance themselves from openly sectarian rhetoric in the run-up to the vote, saying they will form diverse and cross-sectarian coalitions.
But many expect the generally chaotic post-election creation of a parliament majority will be sectarian in nature nonetheless.
“Differences now are deeper than before in that everyone is seeking influence in the next government,’’ said Ali alAdeeb, a leading Shia politician.
“Thus, the process of forming the new government will be complicated and any further delay will further complicate the political and security scene.’’
Nearly 7,000 candidates will vie for 329 seats in parliament in the May 12 elections, the fourth since the 2003 US-led invasion that removed Saddam from power, according to the Independent High Electoral Commission.
Candidates have formed 27 political coalitions and last month, the electoral commission extended the deadline for registering the alliances as political parties worked to negotiate deals, but failed.
Sunni candidates are divided among three big alliances and up to seven small ones. Leaders had demanded a delay in elections for up to six months arguing that many of their voters are in areas that suffered some of the worst destruction in the war.
Sunni lawmaker Mohammed al-Karboli said Sunni candidates will have a difficult time facing more dominant Shia political groups who have far more resources. “The Sunnis will have a weak presence in the next parliament. We are not optimistic about the coming elections,’’ he said.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced he is seeking re-election with his recently formed Victory Alliance, running separately from rival Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition.
Both men are members of the Shia Islamist Dawa party, which has said its supporters can vote for either candidate.