Myanmar’s peace process stumbles on
Myanmar’s peace process is precariously poised with Panglong — or the national peace conference as it is formally called — set to meet in May. Several more ethnic groups — including the Wa — have agreed to sign the national ceasefire agreement (NCA). But, despite this, the peace process is in danger of disintegrating.
Although the third session of Panglong has now been set for May — originally planned for January and then February — many involved in the process are sceptical it will take place as scheduled. There are few signs of real progress and many more of division and disunity. This stop-start in negotiations belies a major rift within the process. For their part, the ethnic groups are suspicious of both the government, and more particularly the military’s willingness to compromise. While the army or Tatmadaw has continued to pursue its own objectives: trying to force ethnic groups to sign the ceasefire agreement, lay down their arms and disband their military wings.
But not everything with the peace process is gloom and doom. In fact a major obstacle to progress seems to have been resolved. The government and the military had been worried about the participation of the northern alliance — a loose collection of seven ethnic groups mostly along the border with China — including the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
Many analysts believed that without the Wa and Kachin’s involvement, a genuine peace settlement would be virtually impossible to achieve. Both the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi and the Tatmadaw clearly understood this and enlisted Beijing’s support to convince the group to participate in the forthcoming Panglong meeting.
As a result of Chinese intervention, following Beijing’s promise to both the State Counsellor Suu Kyi and Myanmar’s commander-in-chief late last year, the Northern Alliance had decided to play ball. Now several key members of the group have agreed to sign the NCA. The Wa and the Mongla group — the Shan State East National Democratic Alliance Association (NDAA) — have agreed in principle to sign the NCA, according to sources involved in the negotiations. The Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) — often referred to as the Kokang — are all also expected to sign, according to informed sources.
But the United Wa State Army has imposed its own conditions, according to sources close to the peace talks. The Wa already control an autonomous region carved out in Shan state, which was agreed to by the previous military regime when the group signed an original ceasefire agreement in 1989. They now want separate political talks with the civilian government and the military: year-long discussions, but with the right to walk away any time if they were unhappy with developments. These discussions are also to be separate from any political dialogue involving the other ethnic groups that have already signed the NCA.
They are expected to insist on creating a Wa state during these political discussions, the central political demand since 1989. In return they would promise to pledge loyalty to the Union of Myanmar — and agree not to secede. Obviously this is intended to placate any objections from the Tatmadaw. The Chinese solution to the annexation of Hong Kong in 1997 is seen as the model: one country, two systems. The military are expected to find this compromise acceptable, according to military sources close to army chief Min Aung Hlaing.
Although the government — and particularly Ms Suu Kyi — agree that the NCA is merely a key to the door for political dialogue, as do the armed ethnic groups. Great stress seems to have been laid on getting all the ethnic groups, or at least as many as possible, to sign before proceeding to the next stage.
With the Wa and the other three members of the Northern Alliance on board, the majority of the ethnic groups involved in the peace process since the previous government of former president Thein Sein began its efforts to end the ethnic conflict more than six years ago, will have signed the NCA before the next Panglong meeting takes place.
When the New Mon State Party and the Lahu Democratic Union both signed the NCA in Nay Pyi Taw in February there was a sense of euphoria — at least on the part of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government. This was the first sign of tangible progress since Ms Suu Kyi launched what she called the 21st century Panglong conference — after the historic meeting between her father, General Aung San and some ethnic leaders in 1947, which committed the country to a federal state, embodied in the Panglong Agreement.
Eight ethnic armed groups signed the NCA in October 2015, during Thein Sein’s presidency. At the most recent signing ceremony the State Counsellor welcomed the Mon and Lahu’s commitment as a hard earned step towards creating a federal state.
“The journey to make this happen successfully is not that easy,” Ms Suu Kyi told those gathered to witness the signing. “This is the decision to make the first step to jointly lay the foundation stone of the Democratic Federal Republic that will emerge in the future for national reconciliation and union peace.”
But she warned the NCA was not the end of the peace process, but the start. It represents the commencement of the political dialogue and the beginning of the reduction of armed conflicts.
“It is the beginning of the political process that will result from the resolution of political problems through negotiations, discussions and the joint search for solutions,” she said emphatically.
Ten ethnic armed organisations have now signed the NCA, and with four members of the Northern Alliance also committed, the government is confident others will now follow suit before the May meeting. The Arakan National Congress Council (ANC) — an umbrella representing several Arakan political groups, civil society organisations and other academics and activists — was also expected to sign in February, but pulled out at the last minute. Members of the government’s negotiating team dismissed this as a hiccup that would be rectified in due course.
But it is the military that holds the key to whether the peace process will move ahead. Already many of the ethnic groups are complaining that the Tatmadaw is riding roughshod over the conditions of the NCA. The Karen National Union (KNU) — one of the original signatories in 2015 — has recently complained about the intrusion of troops into their territory displacing more than a thousand villagers as a result.
This is a constant pattern of behaviour by the army, according to ethnic leaders involved in the peace process. The army’s military campaigns in Kachin and Shan states are undermining the civilian government’s peace efforts. Many observers believe the army’s actions on the ground are endangering the peace process.
It is now up to Ms Suu Kyi to ensure the Panglong conference goes ahead in May, and more importantly produces tangible results. One thing is now certain: there will be no constitutional change before the 2020 elections. This was something the State Counsellor was counting on, according to government insiders, in part to ensure the NLD would be in a position to form the next government after the elections. But if she does not do anything to curb the military’s actions, Panglong is likely to be postponed again, with a very real danger that the whole peace process could completely collapse.
It is the military that holds the key to whether the peace process will move ahead.