SHARES HAMMERED AS US AND CHINA BEAT TRADE WAR DRUMS

RECAP: US and global stock markets experienced a sharp correction in response to growing concerns over a possible trade war after US President Donald Trump signed a new order to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports and limit the country’s investments in the US in retaliation for years of alleged intellectual property “theft”.

On the domestic front, the SET index moved in a range of 1,779.93 and 1,813.64 points before closing at 1,794.21, down 1% from the previous week, in moderate turnover averaging 51.56 billion baht a day.

Foreign investors were net sellers of 3.76 billion baht, while brokers sold 1.55 billion worth of shares. Institutional investors net buyers of 4.21 billion baht and retail investors bought 1.09 billion.

NEWSMAKERS: Britain and the EU reached a landmark deal on a transition phase that will last for nearly two years after the Brexit divorce next year, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said. They also agreed on a “backstop” solution for the thorny issue of the Irish border, just weeks after Prime Minister Theresa May said no British premier could ever accept such an idea. US-educated economist Yi Gang has been named the next governor of China’s central bank, replacing Zhou Xiaochuan. His appointment signals continuity as Beijing continues to try and rein in growing debt and limit risky financial practices. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has denied he played any role in the alleged cover-up of a land sale at the centre of a growing scandal. The controversy relates to the sale of government land at below market price to a controversial nationalist group. Former South Korean president Lee Myungbak was arrested and jailed on Friday over a range of corruption allegations, becoming the latest in a series of disgraced leaders embroiled in scandals.

Plans to amend the Foreign Business Act of 1999 have resurfaced after three years of silence, with the Business Development Department vowing to more clearly define “foreigner” to tackle the nominee problem. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak says Thailand must join the new 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership, which no longer includes the US, while pursuing talks to conclude the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to protect the country’s trade interests.

Exports retained their growth momentum in February, up 10.3% year-on-year, on the heels of a 17.6% increase in January that was the highest in 62 months.

Business registrations rose 11% year-onyear in February, mainly for construction, real estate and logistics services, driven by economic growth prospects and government investment.

Unemployment rose by 61,000 in February from a year earlier, with bachelor’s degree holders having the highest unemployment rate, according official figures.

The telecom regulator plans to force all mobile firms to re-register their entire customer bases, despite widespread concerns over the potential harm to consumer data privacy and the burden it will place on operators.

The Central Bankruptcy Court dismissed a business rehabilitation plan for Group Lease Plc filed by J Trust Asia on grounds that GL is not insolvent and has never defaulted on its debt repayments.

Nearly half of the government’s welfare and subsidy scheme recipients who voluntarily signed up to participate in skills training programmes in return for a higher living allowance failed to take the training courses. That amounted to almost 3 million or 44% of the 6.4 million welfare smart-card holders, said Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong. The Bank of Thailand plans to adopt blockchain technology for its bond issuance and wholesale central bank digital currency, an interbank payment system.

COMING UP: New Zealand will release final 2017 trade figures on Monday. France will release February GDP data and the UK will update housing-loan figures for February.

The EU will release business confidence for March on Tuesday, with Germany releasing retail sales for February and the US announcing March consumer confidence. On Wednesday the US will release final fourth-quarter 2017 GDP figures and wholesale inventories for February. Germany will release March unemployment and inflation data on Thursday, the UK will release final 2017 GDP and the US will update personal income and consumption expenditure for February.

On Saturday China will release manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers index (PMI) updates for March. The UK will release March consumer confidence and Japan will update the unemployment rate.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Tisco Securities recommends export-focused firms such as AH, SAT and NYT. Also recommended are firms likely to see upward revisions in profit growth and higher share prices including AH, AI, SAT, SEAFTO, TOA and TVO. Stocks with potential for end-of-quarter window dressing are BANPU, EGCO, CPN, ERW, GLOBAL, MINT, PTTEP and SGP.

Capital Nomura Securities’ asset allocation recommendation this month is stocks at 65%, cash at 17.5%, gold at 12.5% and bonds at 5%. It recommends accumulating stocks with good potential such as KBANK, BBL, TMB, TOA, CK, STEC, PYLON, CPALL, HMPRO, BH, AOT, ERW, MONO, IVL and IRPC.

TECHNICAL VIEW: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,785 points and resistance at 1,820. Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,785 points and resistance at 1,815.