SIGNS OF HOPE AFTER SUMMIT
Rogue regime leader Kim Jong-un has laid his cards on the table following the first meeting in a decade between North and South Korea yesterday. Now it is up to South Korea and the United States to play their cards right to prevent what appears to be a roadmap to a peace treaty from collapsing. After their summit yesterday, Mr Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in issued a joint declaration, agreeing to end a nearly seven-decade war this year and pursue the “complete denuclearisation” of the Korean Peninsula.
The joint commitment brings both relief and hope for Asia and the world, even though there is still a prospect that it could end up as a temporary and meaningless truce, like the previous ones made by leaders of the two countries in 2000 and 2007.
South Korea has reason to be overwhelmed by the agreement — the first step to reduced military tensions in the peninsula.
Military arms reductions, the cessation of hostile acts, turning their militarised border into a peace zone and initiating talks with other countries including the United States are the main goals agreed to yesterday by both leaders.
Mr Kim and Mr Moon also came up with a timeline for denuclearisation. They said they would hold military talks next month and seek a “phased disarmament”. They announced plans to formally declare a resolution to the war and turn the current armistice into a peace treaty by year’s end.
But to turn this agreement into tangible results satisfied by both countries and the world’s key actor, the United States, is a daunting task.
The North Korean regime is known for its unpredictability when it comes to engaging in talks and reaching agreements, using dialogue as a tool to buy time to develop nuclear weapons. This time, Mr Kim said he would not repeat the same “unfortunate history” in which agreements fizzled out over time.
For South Korea, it is apparent that Mr Moon will have to keep nurturing this agreement to ensure that it will lead to meaningful peace in the peninsula. He already has a plan to visit North Korea this autumn. The two countries will also hold a reunion in August of families left divided when the Korean War ended 65 years ago.
The joint agreement paves the way and sets the tone for talks between US President Donald Trump and Mr Kim, expected to take place next month or early June.
Mr Trump will have to walk a fine line during his meeting with the North Korean leader.
Lifting economic sanctions that the United Nations and the US have imposed on his regime will likely be another condition Mr Kim will demand in exchange for denuclearisation on his part.
More importantly, it is likely that “denuclearisation” for Mr Kim means mutual nuclear deterrence from both his country and the US. Mr Kim’s statement issued yesterday, which said he needs the US to express its “sincerity”, reflects such a position on the issue.
That means Mr Kim may not eliminate his nuclear weapons as long as the US does not get rid of its nuclear weapons in South Korea. At the upcoming meeting, Mr Trump will have to get clarification from, and possibly reach an agreement with, Mr Kim on whether denuclearisation means dismantling North Korean nukes (and the American nuclear stockpile in South Korea) or just the agreement for North Korea to normalise nuclear weapons as India and Pakistan have done with theirs.
Mr Trump will also have to find out whether complete denuclearisation means the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. In that case, he can make a similar demand for North Korea to reduce its military size.
If Mr Kim wants to fulfil the goal of denuclearisation without imposing conditions on the US, then the roadmap to peace in the peninsula will be a promising one. If not, Mr Trump will have to strike the right balance between his and Mr Kim’s expectations.