Bank on it! Germany will win World Cup
UBS computers predict after 10,000 simulations that reigning champs will retain the trophy
>> MOSCOW: What happens when a global investment bank gets its computers to run 10,000 virtual tournaments to guesstimate who is going to bring home the World Cup? Germany win again. Switzerland’s UBS has released its quadrennial report into the best bet punters can make during the most watched sports event in the world.
The 29-page analysis is not kind to the hosts.
Russia are given a 1.6 percent chance of winning the football extravaganza when it kicks in a month — which puts them one spot below Mexico and Switzerland.
Defending champions Germany come out tops with a 24 percent chance of claiming the trophy while Brazil and Spain round out the top three.
“It is almost a given that the new champions will come from either Europe or Latin America,” UBS said.
“The likelihood of a champion from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, or North America is almost nil.”
The report is part a tongue-andcheek look at the June 14 to July 15 competition and part a serious analysis of Russia’s investment climate.
It includes Italy in its permutations despite the four-time winners failing to make their first final since 1958.
“The tournament doesn’t seem quite the same without them,” UBS wrote in a section called “A tribute to Italy”.
The Azzurri are given the same odds of winning as Russia.
It also identified five must-watch matches that are sure to be “nail-biters”.
UBS predicts that Spain will win the Iberian derby over Portugal and that England will edge out highly fancies Belgium in the decisive group stage round.
And it takes a slight departure to note that Russia has the same surface area as the dwarf planet Pluto.
UBS says in more sombre tones that Russia is still a nation recovering from economic sanctions imposed by the West over its actions in Ukraine.
A growing list of diplomatic standoffs has cast a shadow over the first tournament ever staged in eastern Europe.
Several nations will not be sending dignitaries to the opening ceremony in protest over the March poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in England.
Moscow furiously denied trying to kill him with a nerve agent in retaliation for his work for British intelligence. “Russia’s role as a host nation has resulted in significant controversy,” UBS notes.
But the bank tries to look past the disputes to focus on the beautiful game itself and the emotions that it carries for millions across the world.
“While we hope that the best team wins, we also hope that the outcome is less devastating than last time, when our colleagues in Sao Paulo were depressed for several weeks afterwards,” UBS wrote in reference to host nation Brazil’s 7-1 loss to Germany in the 2014 semi-final.
That result put UBS computers to shame — the bank had picked Brazil to win the whole thing.
AGUERO FEELS ‘LIKE NEW’
Argentina striker Sergio Aguero says that he feels “like new” and is ready to play his “best World Cup” in Russia despite struggling in recent months with a knee injury.
The 29-year-old hasn’t played for Manchester City since their Champions League quarter-final defeat by Liverpool on April 10, and Argentina coach Jorge Sampaoli has a host of attacking options to choose from before naming his World Cup squad.
“My knee is like new, I’ve always had problems... But now I feel different, I can bend it and it’s a relief,” he said.
Aguero has played 84 times since making his international debut in 2006, scoring 36 goals, but faces strong competition for a place in Sampaoli’s starting XI. With Lionel Messi a shooin for the team, Aguero will need to stave off challenges from Juventus pair Gonzalo Higuain and Paulo Dybala, Roma striker Diego Perotti and Inter Milan’s Mauro Icardi.