Coupster with the smarts keeps eye on main game
Prayut Chan-o-cha determined not to repeat the mistakes of past coups as he seeks cunning ways to hang on to power
Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is writing a new page of history for himself as the chief coup maker who has adopted lessons learnt previously by his predecessors as he strives to hang on to power, observers say.
As leader of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), he can also prevent conflicts from breaking out between the government and the NCPO.
He has elevated a number of NCPO soldiers to cabinet while armed force commanders are allowed to also hold positions in the NCPO, to improve unity between the ruling group, the government and the armed forces.
And as he gets a taste for the big job, Gen Prayut is also keen to ensure he will not repeat the past mistakes of his predecessor, Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon, in the 1992 Black May crisis, which erupted after he changed his status from coup maker to prime minister.
Gen Prayut knows the situation back then was in many ways different from the current one. However, he is also wary of criticisms of having led a “failed coup” as certain goals he set at the outset have failed to come to pass.
Gen Prayut has been in power for longer than any of his predecessors, with the apparent reason being that he has to prevent the Pheu Thai Party political camp from returning to power.
He will have served as prime minister for as long as five years by the time the election timed for February next year comes about.
He has also learned from another coup maker, Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who was reluctant to become prime minister himself and invited Gen Surayud Chulanont to take the job after the Sept 19, 2006 coup.
The military-installed Surayud government took about a year or so to hold a new general election, in which ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, with the new name Pheu Thai, returned to power.
That exposed Gen Sonthi to claims his coup was a waste of time.
The May 22, 2014 coup led by Gen Prayut was said to be a new attempt to achieve what the Sept 19, 2006 coup could not: barring Pheu Thai from rising to power again.
For some, this explains why Gen Prayut has been delaying the country’s return to democracy, repeatedly putting off the election as he has, while waiting for the political odds to return in his favour.
But when he reaches a point when he is no longer able to put it off, Gen Prayut may have to enter politics himself.
Although he may choose not to run in the election as a constituency candidate, he still has other options to return as prime minister, such as assuming the role of an “outsider” prime minister as allowed by the constitution, drafted and promulgated during the NCPO’s time in power.
Another way for Gen Prayut to hang on to the top job is for his supporters to set up parties to back him.
Gen Prayut apparently doesn’t fear repeating the past mistake of the “Justice Unity Party”, better known as Samakkheetham, set up in Gen Suchinda’s time, which culminated in the Black May violence.
That is because Gen Prayut knows the Suchinda government didn’t achieve real unity between the Si Sao Thewet camp and power groups in the armed forces.
Under his leadership, and with the help of two powerful military figures, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Gen Anupong Paojinda, Gen Prawit has taken a firm grip on the armed forces since 2006.
Of course, some military factions still support the Thaksin Shinawatra camp; but since these groups do not have any control over the military forces, they can never wrestle with the power of the trio. The three have a firm long-term relationship, which has never been shaken by anyone.
Gen Prayut has a great deal of respect for Gen Prawit, enough to make the former tempted to protect the latter even in the luxury-watch scandal when Gen Prawit faced escalating pressure from the public for him to resign.
Gen Prayut has allowed Gen Prawit to stay on in the cabinet. That’s no surprise given the two’s friendship stretches back more than 40 years ago when they spent time together at the 21st Infantry Regiment as young people, observers say.
The trio treats the Si Sao Thewet camp as important and also shares military power with other key power groups in the armed forces such as the Wongthewan group.
The firm relationship between Gen Prayut, Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong is a key element supporting the Prayut regime remaining in power and helps explain why this is the longest military-stalled government in Thailand’s history.
Still, the government has undergone as many as five cabinet reshuffles, which has never happened under previous coup governments.
Furthermore, the Prayut regime appears to have also won acceptance from the US. Proof includes US President Donald Trump inviting Gen Prayut to visit him at the White House last October, despite the fact Gen Prayut was a coup leader.
More recently, the US Secretary of Defence invited Gen Prawit to the Pentagon on April 23-25. The government has been drawing closer to China, which may have spurred US interest in forming closer ties with Thailand.
The military regime has approved the navy purchasing a submarine and VN1 and VT4 armoured personnel carriers from China. It has also let China jointly invest in a project to build a factory producing weapons and small arms parts in Thailand.
Gen Prayut says he is a politician who used to be a soldier and he is ready to woo votes, especially among young people, with his new Thai Niyom Yangyuen (sustainable Thai values) policy.
With all these sources of support, as well that of Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda, Gen Prayut has begun to move by encouraging the formation of several medium and smallsized parties such as the Phalang Pracharath headed by Col Suchat Chantharachotikul, a classmate from Class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has also begun contacting cabinet ministers in an associated movement to form a new party in the hope of supporting Gen Prayut to return as prime minister after the election.
With all these developments, Gen Prayut could end up as leader of one of these parties, or see them merged into one, and emerge as their candidate for prime minister, without having to be branded as an “outsider” prime minister.
Lobbying has begun to attract former MPs and important politicians into these parties. Several military officials close to Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit are rumoured to be behind this lobbying.
Following the government’s controversial appointment of Phalang Chon Party head Sonthaya Khunpluem, as an adviser to the prime minister and his younger brother Itthiphol an assistant to the new tourism and sports minister, all eyes are now on the Bhumjaithai Party and its de facto leader Newin Chidchob.
This has prompted Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to come out to accuse the NCPO of attempting to “suck” in politicians into its own political party, at the same time as introducing a new word to the political lexicon.
I am not a ventilator or vacuum cleaner. What sort of power can I use to force anyone to join?
PRAYUT CHAN-O-CHA, PREMIER
Gen Prayut responded by saying sucking in politicians is not something new in Thai politics and said in a metaphoric remark that he will suck in only “clean cats”.
“I am not a ventilator or vacuum cleaner. What sort of power can I use to force anyone to join?” he asked.
Time will tell if the lessons learnt from his predecessors help him survive and put to rest that old saying that soldiers aren’t suitable for politics due to their lack of political savvy.