Poll positions
With elections in Cambodia, Thailand (maybe) and Indonesia on the horizon, the region’s voters assess their leaders.
The Asean political calendar is a busy one over the next 12 months, with much riding on the outcome in at least three countries.
In Cambodia, voters are essentially being asked to endorse another term for Hun Sen — he has made sure there is no real alternative — when they go to the polls on July 29.
In Indonesia, local and regional polls were held on June 27 and that sets the stage for a long run-up to the presidential election next year, when Joko Widodo will seek a second term. The growing influence of Islamist politicians and movements is being closely watched.
In Thailand, voters hope to cast ballots sometime between February and May next year — nearly five years after the coup that put Gen Prayut Chano-cha in the prime minister’s chair. The big question is whether he wants to stay on and whether he will do so as the candidate of a political party.
Gen Prayut promises to reveal his intentions by September. Then again, he has been talking about elections “next year” since shortly after he took office in 2014.
In The Philippines, where President Rodrigo Duterte’s term runs until 2022, midterm elections for legislative seats are scheduled for next year.
However, Mr Duterte is pushing for a constitutional change to a federal system, and has even floated the idea of an election for a new leader before such a change takes place, if it takes place. That calls into question whether the 2019 polls could go ahead, some senators are saying.
In Myanmar, meanwhile, the next general election is not scheduled until 2020, but the civilian government is already feeling a sense of urgency about public perceptions of underperformance. It needs to start delivering more concrete economic results if it wants another term.
As economic development remains quite healthy in Southeast Asia, all eyes are now on the results of upcoming polls and the political contenders seeking to continue the forward momentum.
THE FOREGONE CONCLUSION
The election season will start in Cambodia, where Hun Sen is assured of victory at the end of this month. The longest-serving head of government in Southeast Asia, the 65-year-old has paved the way for his Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to face only minimal opposition.
“Prime Minister Hun Sen has systematically dismantled the main opposition and personally persecuted leading opposition members,” observed Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an associate professor and director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
“His party’s certain poll victory will be seen as illegitimate. If poll turnout is low, it may represent a protest vote that would further undermine the ruling party,” he told Asia Focus.
About 69% of registered Cambodian voters cast ballots in the previous general election in 2013, down from 75% in 2008 and 83% 2003.
Forty-five percent of those who voted in 2013 cast their ballots for the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), which also won 44% of the vote in commune elections last year. But voting for the CNRP will not be an option on July 29. Hun Sen has seen to that.
The first blow was struck last year when Sam Rainsy, the CNRP leader, was forced to step down when the government came up with a new rule to bar convicted criminals from leading a political party. Sam Rainsy was convicted of defamation and incitement for accusing Hun Sen’s government of orchestrating the murder of political activist Kem Ley. He is now living in exile in Paris.
The next domino to fall was Kem Sokha, who succeeded Sam Rainsy as CNRP leader. He was arrested last September for “treason”, or “colluding with foreigners to betray the nation”, as Hun Sen put it. Kem Sokha remains in custody.
The Supreme Court later put the final nail in the coffin when it dissolved the CNRP after the Ministry of Interior accused it of plotting to overthrow the government via a “colour revolution” with the help of the United States. The evidence consisted of a video in which Kem Sokha said he would seek advice and help from Americans about developing the country if his party formed the government.
The Supreme Court ruling was a foregone conclusion in a country where separation of powers is a hazy concept at best. Dith Munty, the current Chief Justice, is also an executive of the CPP.
The only real opposition party still standing, the Grassroots Democratic Party (GDP), is also threatening to withdraw from the election, saying “undemocratic forces” are in play.
“We are ready for the election but … if the situation gets worse, we don’t think this election is worthwhile for us to participate,” GDP leader Yang Saing Koma told Al Jazeera in May.
Saing Koma became the party’s leader after founder Kem Ley was gunned down in daylight on July 2016 while reading his morning newspaper at a petrol station in Phnom Penh. The party is fielding candidates in just 27 communes (there are 1,646 in all) in nine provinces.
With the election result all but assured, Dr Thitinan said China’s support for Hun Sen “reflects poorly on China for backing a blatant dictatorship that will be successfully whitewashed by the upcoming polls”.
“Hun Sen has thrown in his lot with China without reservation. China’s backing is his trump card for domestic dictatorship in the face of international opprobrium,” he said, adding that China also risks long-term loss of prestige and interest in the event that Cambodia’s opposition regains ground and triumphs one day.
“Malaysia is a recent example where an eventual opposition victory showed China’s poor judgement for supporting a corrupt and illegitimate incumbent,” he said.
THE GUESSING GAME
An election in Thailand could take place anytime between Feb 24 and May 5 next year, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said last month. The ban on political activities would be eased between September and December so that parties could prepare for the campaign.
But the junta, known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), will continue its ban on public gatherings of more than five people and on actual political campaigning during that period. Consequently, there will be a very narrow window of opportunity for parties to promote themselves to the voters.
That gives a huge advantage to the junta and its members, who continue to travel the country, staging “official” events that somehow end up looking like campaign rallies.
“That Thailand’s polls are repeatedly delayed suggests that the junta is still unsure about winning and retaining post-election power,” said Dr Thitinan. “The longer the junta delays polls, the more unpopular the generals become. The more unpopular they become, the longer the junta will want to delay polls.”
The biggest campaign-style roadshow involving Gen Prayut took place earlier this year in Buri Ram province where 30,000 people packed the Chang Arena to cheer him on.
Prior to his visit, speculation was rife that Gen Prayut would court local godfather and former Bhumjaithai Party leader Newin Chidchob, who organised the welcome, as part of the regime’s bid to lure small and medium-sized parties to join the military-aligned Palang Pracharat party.
The Pheu Thai Party, which in its various incarnations has won every election since its billionaire founder Thaksin Shinawatra swept into power in 2001, has accused Palang Pracharat of stealing some of its former MPs.
Elections, according to Dr Thitinan, are seen as a way to change governments and Thai people tend to link elections with democracy, but the reality is that the next vote could be more about “popular disenchantment that the military government has overstayed its welcome”. The military has staged 12 successful coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.
There is also a growing notion that the election will eventually become a popular judgement on junta rule and the military’s increasingly entrenched role in politics.
“It could become a pro- or anti-military election,” he said, adding that further “tension and turmoil” could ensue if the next government ultimately emerged with Gen Prayut once more at its head.
Dr Thitinan pointed out that democratic institutions in Thailand, like the constitution and political parties, are “weak”. The country has had 20 constitutions and the latest version, drafted by a military-appointed panel, has been called “undemocratic” by critics who say it severely curbs the power of elected representatives.
“Despite claims by the junta otherwise, the new constitution creates a permanent place for the military in government and seeks to normalise their intervention,” Tyrell Haberkorn, a fellow of the Department of Political & Social Change at Australian National University who has written extensively about Thailand told the BBC in April 2017.
The constitution introduces a confusing proportional voting system for the lower house that would benefit small and medium-sized parties but disadvantage the biggest ones, especially Pheu Thai, which everyone believes will win more votes than any other party no matter how many roadblocks the military puts up.
Meanwhile, given that the military will pick the senators, the generals will continue to have sway over future governments, which will need three quarters of the seats in the lower house to have a majority in both houses.
“Strengthening (democratic institutions) is the way to build a stable and lasting democracy but this requires time and trial and error without military coups,” said Dr Thitinan.
“Sadly, after all this time, Thai politics remains as murky as ever. Things may have to get much worse
Hun Sen has thrown in his lot with China without reservation. China’s backing is his trump card for domestic dictatorship in the face of international opprobrium THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK Chulalongkorn University
What strikes Ulrich Zachau the most after finishing his five-year term as the World Bank director for Southeast Asia is how social and economic development have set Thailand and the region apart from the rest of the world.
But despite improving conditions, he believes Southeast Asia still faces many challenges, notably inequality, which require tailored solutions.
“It is an extraordinary and rapidly evolving and developing region and sub-region, faster than other parts of the world,” the German who holds a PhD in economics from Oxford University, told Asia Focus.
“You’ll see that in the numbers where the economic growth rate and per capita income growth rate are higher in this region than elsewhere and this is true across South Asia and the sub-region of Southeast Asia.
“It is also striking how much this economic growth has begun to translate into an effective reduction in poverty and improvements in the wellbeing of many people across the region.”
The World Bank now projects growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), including China, to remain “strong” at 6.3% in 2018. That’s down slightly from 6.6% last year, reflecting Beijing’s strategy to ease into more sustainable growth longer-term. China’s growth is expected to slip from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.5% this year.
The region’s gross domestic product last year reached US$24 trillion in 2017, almost double the $12.2 trillion seen a decade earlier, representing annual growth of around 4.5% during a period that included the global economic slowdown of 2008-09.
“These achievements in terms of economic growth have brought benefits for many, many people. Not only for the rich,” said Mr Zachau.
The World Bank estimates the number of people living in extreme poverty in the region fell by 920 million between 1990 and 2013. Rapid growth in labour income among the poor, along with low unemployment, public transfers, structural transformations and public investment all contributed to the decline, it added.
“But inequality remains significant and high in many countries. In a couple of countries, it is rising because the economic benefits from growth accrue more to the rich than to the poor,” said Mr Zachau.
“In a couple of other countries, including Thailand, (inequality) has been declining. It is still high but the poor have been gaining more than the rich and this the most striking feature of economic and social development in Thailand and in the sub-region.”
Two other trends Southeast Asia has in common with the rest of the world, he notes, are the “dramatic rise” of digital and technological development, and the rapid growth of the ageing population.
Before joining the World Bank, Mr Zachau worked for McKinsey & Co and taught economics at the University of Bonn. Prior to moving to Asia, he held senior positions with the World Bank in Washington DC, responsible for East Asia and Pacific affairs in 2012-13.
He moved to Asia in October 2013 as the Bangkok-based country director for Southeast Asia. Last month he took up a challenging new post as country director for Colombia and Venezuela based in Bogota.
Reflecting on the highlights of his time in Asean, Mr Zachau pointed to the dramatic changes in Myanmar. While the country has been democratised and reformed “in a very major way”, big challenges remain including issues that potentially affect the peace of the region.
“There are dramatic changes there including the openings of the economy, of trade, initial reforms in the budget and transparency, but the peace challenges are ongoing in Myanmar; they are not resolved,” he pointed out.
The World Bank, he said, has been actively supporting community-based programmes in Myanmar that directly improve people’s lives by building schools, funding healthcare services for women, and improving access to electricity which means that children can now study at night.
In Cambodia, the bank has seen “tremendous economic growth and improvements” and has resumed financing, advisory services and technical assistance there.
Health and education remain important challenges and development priorities for Cambodia as 32% (or roughly 500,000) of children under five are stunted. Net enrolment in primary education has increased from 82% in 1997 to 97% in 2016 but the lower secondary completion rate, at 48% in 2015, is significantly below the average for lower middle-income countries.
In Malaysia, the bank opened a new knowledge and research centre in Kuala Lumpur in 2015, the first of its kind to combine the services it delivers locally with services and knowledge Malaysia can share with the rest of the world.
“So the World Bank is facilitating the role that Malaysia has as an advanced middle-income country ... that has a positive development experience to share,” Mr Zachau said. “It also facilitates breakthrough economic research by Malaysians.”
The challenges in Thailand are human development in terms of education, health, social protection or the “development of social capital”, he said.
The key is to focus on quality education and good teachers who are well-trained in as many as parts of the country as possible, “especially outside Bangkok”, he said.
Both Malaysia and Thailand, he observed, have done “relatively poorly” in the past in terms of their Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment) scores before but Malaysia is improving.
Mr Zachau, meanwhile, praised Vietnam as a good example of what can be done to improve education. It is now ahead of Germany and Switzerland in science, and ahead of the US in science and mathematics.
“Vietnam, which has a lower per capita income, has fared extremely well and has untaken incredible reforms and now Malaysia is beginning to do that,” said Mr Zachau. “My wish and my hope for Thailand is that as Thailand begins these reforms, Thailand will be also, in the next round of these standardised tests, begin showing some improvement.”
The most recent 2015 Pisa results showed Thai students underperforming their peers in several Asian countries with scores below the international average in all three (maths, sciences and reading) subjects tested. Compared with the eighth-place ranking of Vietnam, Thailand placed 54th, the second lowest in Asean after Indonesia in 62nd place.
“It will take time because (reforms) will start in primary school, going on into secondary school until young people aged 15 are able to demonstrate these skills that will show up in the test scores,” he said.
“It will take a significant effort and resources over a long period of time and it is not so much a question of money for Thailand, because the country has already spent a lot of money on education, but it is the question of how money is spent.”
The Nordic example of a focus on creativity and innovation instead of rote learning could be replicated, he said, but curricula are specific to each nation and Thailand will have to determine how best to advance.
“[ Improving education] is not so much a question of money for Thailand, because the country has already spent a lot of money on education, but it is the question of how money is spent” ULRICH ZACHAU Former World Bank director for Southeast Asia