Poll bodes ill for Cambodia
With a series of legal tactics that wiped out the increasingly popular opposition party and its manipulation of the electorate, Cambodia’s ruling party has played dirty to win tomorrow’s general election but also surely soured the legitimacy of its victory. While the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), led by Prime Minister Hun Sen, will almost certainly achieve the former, it will also accomplish the latter. The CPP’s unchallenged victory in tomorrow’s polls simply spells trouble ahead for the strongman and his ruling party.
For one thing, the lack of legitimacy in the victory will remain a thorn in the side of the CPP, a constant reminder that Cambodians still need a real election, not a fake one.
In tomorrow’s ballot, the CPP is contesting against other 19 other parties, most of which are small, unknown or formed by the CPP itself to make the contest look credible. The only real competitor, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was disbanded by a Supreme Court ruling in November at the request of the government after it alleged a public remark made by its then leader Kem Sokha constituted a conspiracy with the US to overthrow it. The dissolution also resulted in a five-year political ban for CNRP senior leaders.
The CNRP won 44% of the seats at the 2013 general election. Even then, it accused Hun Sen’s party of cheating. The opposition’s popularity remained strong as it won more than 40% of the available seats in local elections last year.
The government’s allegations against the CNRP are groundless and laughable. But the strongman, who has ruled the country for 33 years, has shown no shame in eliminating his only viable threat in the poll tomorrow.
Nevertheless, a low turnout would still rock the credibility of the election and its winner.
The CNRP’s ex-leader Sam Rainsy, who lives in selfimposed exile in Paris, has called for a boycott, but the ruling party has sent out a threatening, false message to the electorate that it is “illegal” not to vote. Additionally, reports indicate that local government officials and leaders have threatened repercussions against members of their communities who do not turn out to cast ballots.
And while Hun Sen shamelessly rebuked CNRP leaders who called for the boycott as “destroyers of democracy” during his final campaign speeches yesterday, it is the iron-fisted ruler himself who has destroyed his country’s democracy and the rule of law in his bid to eliminate the CNRP, control the media and manipulate the voters.
Hun Sen will almost certainly claim victory tomorrow, but Cambodians will not be fooled. The illegitimacy of the election will only strengthen the CNRP’s support base. Hun Sen’s continuing authoritarian rule will become increasingly unpopular amid the stench of corruption by his inner circle, among other problems the country faces.
Meanwhile, Cambodia’s economy and international standing will likely also suffer as a result of this rigged election. Even though the country has relied on China for investment in infrastructure, its main export markets for its crucial garment industry are the US and the European Union (EU).
The EU’s delegation this month expressed concerns over a decline in electoral and political rights in Cambodia, while the US passed the Cambodia Democracy Act to impose sanctions on Hun Sen’s inner circle. These indicate the possibility that the EU and the US may remove duty-free access for Cambodia’s garment sector following the poll.
After its first election in 1993, Cambodia had a chance to see democracy flourish. But the ruling party has spurned the opportunity in its pursuit to prolong power.
Hun Sen may continue to drum up support using nationalist sentiment. But he will remain an insecure and illegitimate leader who will struggle to tame public resentment, curb the CNRP’s popularity and deal with an international backlash.