TNSC cuts 2019 export view

Thai exporters have predicted the country’s exports will grow 5% next year, easing from 9% this year, citing higher oil prices as a major threat to prospects.

Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said 5% growth for next year is considered high given the relatively high base for this year.

However, she said the forecast excludes risk factors from the trade row between the US and China.

“The 5% growth is a challenging target for exporters,” said Ms Ghanyapad. “We are still hopeful the trade spat between the two giant economies will ease because US consumers will be affected by higher product prices.”

She said shippers remain confident Thailand’s export growth will be not be affected by the trade war in the fourth quarter this year until the first quarter of 2019.

The TNSC also maintained its export growth forecast at 9% this year, in line with the outlook of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, which predicted export growth in a range of 8-10%.

“We need to secure US$22.5 billion worth of export value a month in the last four months of the year if we want to achieve 10% growth as hoped by many parties,” said Ms Ghanyapad. “But 9% growth is highly likely given the performance of the first eight months, which averaged $21 billion.”

The Commerce Ministry reported on Sept 21 exports rose for an 18th straight month in August, but eased from the previous month’s growth figure because of a bigger base and the negative impact of the Sino-US trade row.

Customs-cleared exports in August rose by 6.7% year-on-year, fetching US$22.8 billion, after growing 8.3% year-on-year in July, 8.2% in June and 11.4% in May.

Exports in baht terms rose by 6.1% from the same month last year to 755 billion baht. For the first eight months of 2018, exports rose 10% year-on-year to $169 billion.

Exports in baht terms edged up 1.9% year-on-year to 5.3 trillion baht. Imports rose by 15.9% to $166.67 billion.