INVESTORS BRACE FOR NEXT FED MOVE, SET SLIDES

RECAP: US stocks moved sideways after the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy interest rate but signalled it would make a move in December. In Asia, bourses performed poorly following news that Beijing plans to set quotas for banks to pump credit into private companies.

The SET index moved between 1,656.51 and 1,688.90 points before closing at 1,668.52, down 0.8% on the week, in turnover averaging 42.37 billion baht a day. Retail investors were net sellers of 2.6 billion baht and institutional investors sold 1.75 billion worth of shares. Brokerages were net buyers of 2.2 billion baht and foreign investors bought 2.14 billion.

NEWSMAKERS: Democrats won control of the US House of Representatives on Tuesday but Republicans added to their Senate majority, raising concern about political gridlock in Washington. Some investors may shun developed markets and commit more to emerging ones, analysts believe.

The Swift banking network, the backbone for international monetary transfers, suspended several Iranian banks from its service after the US reimposed nuclear sanctions on Tehran last week. President Xi Jinping has vowed to open access to

China’s economy as he kicked off an import fair amid growing foreign accusations that his government is backtracking on reform pledges.

Moscow is intensifying efforts to wean its economy off the dollar as Washington considers new sanctions that could deny Russia access to foreign debt markets. Japan has agreed to issue yen-denominated bonds of up to 200 billion yen (US$1.8 billion) to help Malaysia tackle its heavy government debt.

Indonesia’s economic growth slowed to 5.2% in the third quarter, pointing to tougher conditions as it struggles with outflows from its financial markets.

Vietnam plans to lift some limits on foreign ownership of listed companies, the country’s stock market regulator said on Wednesday. Tesla has named Robyn Denholm, the finance chief of the Australian telecom firm Telstra, as its new chairman after Elon Musk was forced to give up the role. Investor confidence in Thailand for the next three months is back in neutral territory, muted by tensions US-China trade and global monetary policies, says the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations. Consumer confidence fell for the second month in October, as concern rose about the impact of higher oil prices, relatively low crop prices, lower exports and the plunge in Chinese tourist arrivals.

The cabinet has agreed to waive the visa-on arrival fee for visitors from 21 countries for two months to give the tourism industry a much-needed boost.

The Thai National Shippers’ Council is maintaining its export growth forecast of 5% next year, much lower than the lofty 8% set by the Commerce Ministry, citing possible harm from US-China tension and low crop prices.

The Thailand Futures Exchange plans to allow Gold-D features to be delivered on a daily basis, from upon contract expiry, aiming to improve trading volume.

The first initial coin offering portal could be certified this month, with the first authorised ICO possibly in December, says the SEC.

The Industry Ministry will offer incentives to encourage six eco-car manufacturers to make electrified eco-cars after finding the current electric vehicle scheme was ineffective.

Kasikornbank has invested US$50 million in Singapore’s Grab, forming a partnership that will help launch the GrabPay electronic wallet in its sixth Southeast Asian market in 2019.

Bangkok Bank plans to set aside additional reserves for credit losses next year as a cushion against future uncertainties, says executive chairman Dej Tulananda.

Krungthai Bank says its planned IT investment budget of 12 billion baht next year will take a bite out of net profit in the short run but should help it generate new income sources.

Siam Commercial Bank expects its SME loan growth will fall short of target at 7% this year. Although the economy has recovered, the momentum has not trickled down to small businesses and low-income earners yet, the bank said.

Thai Union Plc (TU), the world’s biggest tuna exporter, reported a considerable dip in both third-quarter and nine-month net profits because of asset impairment charges and weak first-quarter results.

Tata Steel Thailand Plc (TSTH), the local unit of India’s largest steelmaker, is optimistic that US-China trade friction and US sanctions on Iran will create positive momentum for global steel prices.

COMING UP: Australia will release October business confidence on Tuesday, with Britain releasing September unemployment and the euro zone announcing the ZEW economic sentiment index for November. Russia will release preliminary Q3 GDP data. On Wednesday, Japan, Germany and the euro zone will release Q3 GDP growth data and Australia will update consumer confidence for November. Britain and the US will announce October consumer prices. The US will release October advanced retail sales and Australia will update October unemployment on Thursday.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Kasikorn Securities (KS) has identified likely SET50 and SET100 index newcomers for the first half of 2019. For the SET50: GULF, WHA, SAWAD and TPIPP, and on the SET 100: GULF, AEONTS, MEK, PLANB and ANAN.

Over the past seven years, the firm says, its data shows that SET50 newcomers have produced positive returns if investments are made around one month before they enter the index, with approximately a 60% gain in average return.

Finansia Syrus Securities recommends stocks expected to report good Q3 performance, with laggard prices. Its picks include CHG, CK, PRM, PTTEP and TISCO.

TECHNICAL VIEW: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,645 points and resistance at 1,720. Maybank Kim Eng Securities sees support at 1,646 and resistance at 1,690.