SWINE FEVER A SERIOUS THREAT TO SOUTHEAST ASIA
With pork being China’s most popular meat, the African Swine Fever epidemic that first hit the country last year is becoming a major crisis. More than 100 million pigs have already died, including half the country’s herd of breeding sows, and the price of pork in China has risen by more than half.
Chinese central authorities released reserves of frozen meat to prevent even greater price spikes and ensure adequate supplies of pork during the recent Golden Week celebrations.
If the disease continues to spread at its current rate, it is estimated that China may lose half of its 700 million-strong pig herd by year-end. This would have a dramatic effect on the global supply of pork given China is home to half of the pigs on the planet.
To replace its lost production, China has ramped up imports of pork and other meats, which is straining global supplies and pushing up prices.
Meanwhile the epidemic is spreading. It has already infected animals in Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines. While Thailand has so far been spared, there is concern the disease will eventually reach here.
In preparation, the Thai government has budgeted 148.5 million baht to combat the disease and protect the industry. While this figure might seem significant, it is estimated an outbreak would cost hundreds of billions of baht.
Thailand’s major pork producer, CP Group, is also one of the leading producers in China, and has managed to slow the spread of the disease more effectively than many of its competitors. CP has only lost about 10% of its breeding sows in China, well below the industry’s average of 50%, while sow farmers that breed pigs for CP have kept losses under 4%.
While many farmers in China are moving away from pig-rearing, CP is accelerating expansion of its business. It plans to raise 10 million pigs a year by 2021, up from 4 million currently.
This disease, which has been dubbed “pig Ebola”, is worse than previous swine flus as it kills almost all the pigs that contract it. It will likely take years to control the epidemic in this region, in part because Southeast Asia is dominated by smallholdings where the virus is easily spread through dirt and dust on truck tyres and clothing.
Farms that have successfully avoided the disease tended to be more industrial-scale operations with higher levels of hygiene and biosecurity compared with family farms. This means the epidemic is likely to lead to a change in the way the industry is run.
Fortunately, up until now the disease has not posed a danger to humans. Let’s hope it stays this way.