FPO nips outlook on risks and budget

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) downgraded Thailand’s economic growth outlook to 2.8% this year after factoring in impacts from the deadly coronavirus and a further delay in the budget bill for fiscal 2020.

The spread of the coronavirus and the possibility of further postponement of disbursement of the fiscal 2020 budget bill have been included in the forecast, assuming such uncertainties will not deteriorate and will dissipate in three months, said Lavaron Sangsnit, director-general of the FPO.

The office lowered its economic growth estimate for last year to 2.5%, he said.

The Finance Ministry’s think tank in October last year predicted the country’s GDP growth would expand 2.8% in 2019 and 3.3% this year.

If the 2.5% growth projection for last year holds true, 2019 will have been the slowest growth in five years, and the 2.8% growth estimate for 2020 will mark a second consecutive year of growth below 3%.

The FPO’s latest forecasts for the country’s economic growth in 2019 and this year are the same as the Bank of Thailand predicted last December, before the virus outbreak and a further delay in the annual budget bill happened.

Thailand’s 2020 export value growth forecast was slashed to 1% from 2.6% projected earlier, while the import growth estimate was halved to 1.7% from 3.4% over the same period.

The private investment projection for this year was cut to 4.2% from 4.6% predicted previously, while private consumption was trimmed to 3.2% from 3.5%. The FPO also lowered the forecast for public investment growth this year to 6.5% from 6.6% estimated earlier, while keeping the state consumption growth outlook at 2.5%.

Despite a slew of headwinds, there are positive factors including the baht moving in line with the county’s economic fundamentals, along with ramping up private and public investment driven by the government’s economic stimuli, said Mr Lavaron.