Vaccine Passport: A Defibrillator for the Travel Industry?

■ It has been almost a year since the Covid-19 pandemic brought industries around the world to their knees. This is particularly true for tourism. As several waves of infections took a toll on economies worldwide, many gave up on plans to enjoy a vacation abroad in the near term.

■ However, the flame of hope has been lit again as some groups, especially in developed countries, started to receive vaccinations. So far, 44 million doses have been ordered in 50 countries, with Israel leading the pack (25 doses per 100 people).

■ idea of a “vaccine passport” as a screening method for individuals to travel abroad was popularised by European governments and even some airlines. It could hold the key for a quick revival of the global tourism industry. These European countries are considering providing and requiring vaccine certificates for travellers.

■ As of early January, Denmark’s Ministry of Health and the Elderly announced it is creating vaccine passports for vaccinated Danish citizens, expected to be ready shortly. Cyprus, Iceland and Hungary are applying for the requirement of immunity proof, in addition to regular entry documents, for travellers wishing to enter their borders.

■ Despite the mounting optimism, the approval of vaccine passports as tickets to enter countries might not be as simple as it sounds. There are growing concerns about the effectiveness and safety of both the utilisation of vaccine certificates and the jabs themselves. For instance, providing a vaccination history could be considered an invasion of privacy. Assuming a vaccine passport is an application or system that can prove a person’s immunisation, a centralised database containing people’s health-related information will be needed. This means putting citizens’ sensitive data in the hands of authorities and state bureaucracies.

■ Another consideration is the side effects from vaccines, with reports the past week Norway had 23 deaths from people over 70 who received the Pfizer-BioNTech jab. This raises questions about who should receive inoculation, though there is no concrete evidence the vaccine was the main cause of the deaths. The efficacy of Sinovac, one of the options available in Thailand, has been highly variable in several trials, from 50.4% to 89%.

■ We believe a vaccine passport scheme will eventually be launched. There are several proposals for some of the problems listed above. To tackle the privacy issue, people can anonymously add their information to the health database and gain access to their records using a biometric identifier, such as a selfie or fingerprint. In that way, the data is not associated with their personal information such as names and addresses. It also prevents the data from being retrieved without bearers’ consent. This system has already been proposed and developed by two British firms, Mvine and iProov.

■ Yet given the lower than expected rate of vaccination in many countries, our baseline assumption is vaccine passports will not be widely in use until late 2021. At present, only around 2% of the population in Europe have received a shot. In the US, the new president has vowed to distribute 100 million doses during his first 100 days in office.

■ For Thailand, we forecast around 2 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, given the estimated rate of vaccination globally and assuming the vaccine passport scheme is launched in the fourth quarter. The estimate is a fraction of the pre-pandemic level of 40 million, but it should gradually recover thereafter.

■ Success in controlling infections globally, the effectiveness of vaccines, and the pace of inoculations all play parts in our forecast. If the pandemic is tamed and vaccines are effective, we will certainly see planes flying across the sky again soon. If not, this is still a great time for economies around the world to speed up digitalisation while waiting for tourism to rekindle. As Duke Ellington said, “a problem is merely a chance for you to do your best”.