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While opposition groups agree on the need to oust this current administration now, the how, if and when is still some way off ™ Prospect of Thamanat Prompow becoming PPRP secretary-general threatens to ruffle more than a few feathers
Prayutocracy: not meant kindly
Anti-government sentiment has advanced to such a point where a term has been coined to amplify the opponents’ disdain of the administration: “Prayutocracy”.
The suffix “cracy” was popularised by critics of the Thaksin Shinawatra government, who invented the term “Thaksinocracy” which, as one analyst put it, sums up governmental excesses. These included cronyism, conflicts of interest, irregularities and largescale solidifying of political power.
The term was adopted by protesters to intensify their attack against Thaksin towards the end of his administration which was overthrown in September 2006 by a military coup headed by army chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who later became president of the Administrative Reform Council.
Fast forward to 2021 and the suffix is now echoing through rallies, this time in protest against the Prayut Chan-o-cha government, which has sat securely in power for seven years since toppling the Pheu Thai Party-led administration headed by Thaksin’s younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Prayutocracy has noticeably been written about in publications produced by anti-government camps for several years. It was also mentioned recently by Adul Khiewboriboon, chairman of a support group for relatives of the Black May 1992 victims — it was they who founded the Samakkhi Prachachon group that spearheaded the latest protest movement against the government under the banner of “Sammakhi prachachon pheu prathet thai” (People’s Unity for Thailand).
The Samakkhi group organised its first rally on April 4 at Santiporn Park on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, Bangkok. Its star speaker was Jatuporn Prompan, chairman of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), who took to the stage to highlight the group’s demand for the immediate resignation of Gen Prayut as prime minister.
It wasn’t until later protests. however, that the term Prayutocracy began to be heard. Mr Adul reportedly said he realised the campaign to boot Gen Prayut out would not be attainable over just a few rallies.
What the group strives to do is expose the shortcomings of the government, thus building up the momentum for millions of people with zero tolerance of the administration to hit the streets and voice their collective demand for Gen Prayut to be purged.
The Progressive Movement, meanwhile, has also mounted a nationwide activity to gather a million signatures of people who agree with dismantling Prayutocracy. The move was initiated by the movement’s secretary-general Piyabutr Saengkanokkul.
Mr Adul said a mass protest was a question of when, not if, should the government continue to keep alive Prayutocracy.
Some supporters of the Samakkhi group believed the term that was reverberating in the protests marked an ominous sign for the government, just like Thaksinocracy did ahead of the demise of the Thaksin administration.
However, observers said a mass gathering may not materialise in the foreseeable future as the group has yet to flesh out potent issues of administrative failure or graft which could deliver the government a knock-out blow.
They said people need to see credible proof of gross mismanagement or blatant acts of corruption and feel a deep sense of hopelessness that would drive them out on the streets.
Also, the protest movement, in general, is currently fractious and has so far failed to muster a lift, according to the observers.
The Samakkhi group organised rallies in parallel to the youth-led Ratsadon protests and the observers have likened them to oil and water. The two groups are kept apart vastly by their different goals.
While the Samakkhi locks their target on expelling Gen Prayut from power, the Ratsadon has been calling for monarchy reform. Although the Ratsadon has also listed Gen Prayut’s resignation among its protest demands, it rarely touched on the subject during its months of rallies.
The observers also noted a visible rift within the UDD whose supporters were the mainstay of the Samakkhi protests.
The irony was pointed out that while Mr Jatuporn, who technically serves as the UDD leader, the other UDD heavyweights in the likes of Nuttawut Saikuar and UDD adviser Tida Tawornseth have stayed out of the Samakkhi group. Instead, they have pledged their undivided support to the Ratsadon.
The smoking gun that confirms the split came when Mr Jatuporn declared at the start of the Samakkhi protest that he would step away if Mr Nuttawut were to join the Samakkhi group.
Change may prove costly
An internal shake-up in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) is inevitable following the departure of two of its executives, Buddhipongse Punnakanta and Nataphol Teepsuwan, according to political observers.
Mr Buddhipongse and Mr Nataphol were removed not only from their ministerial posts, but also from the party’s executive board after being convicted by the Criminal Court for their role in the 2013-2014 street protests led by the now-defunct People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
Their exit from the political arena means the PPRP’s executive board will need to replace them and party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon has already called a meeting for tomorrow to fill the vacancies.
However, signs are strong that the ruling party will take this chance to revamp the leadership. If this is the case, it will be the first major change in the PPRP since Gen Prawit became leader in late June last year.
Likely to be on the agenda is a change of secretary-general, the post currently held by Prime Minister’s Office Minister Anucha Nakasai. He was elected in June last year replacing Sontirat Sontijirawong who was removed in what has become known as a “purge”.
In that election, Gen Prawit, who was the PPRP’s chief strategist at the time, was elected party leader replacing Uttama Savanayana. People close to Mr Uttama and his “See Guman” group were uprooted and faded away from the political scene.
After being elected, Mr Anucha reportedly agreed to only stay in the post for six months with reports suggesting he was just keeping the seat warm for Deputy Finance Minister Santi Promphat.
It was reported that Mr Anucha has signed his resignation letter and submitted it to Gen Prawit, who was said to have no objection to Mr Santi replacing him.
However, speculation is rife Gen Prawit is having a change of heart and may back party executive and Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Thamanat Prompow, as secretary-general.
Gen Prawit is said to be impressed by Capt Thamanat’s hard work lately, especially after the PPRP’s win in the Nakhon Si Thammarat Constituency 3 by-election.
PPRP candidate, Ayasit Srisuwan, defeated the Democrat Party’s Pongsin Senpong, brother of veteran Democrat Thepthai Senpong, by about 4,000 votes and much of the credit went to the Phayao MP.
The deputy agriculture and cooperatives minister is also believed to be striking
political deals with several opposition MPs and giving the government the upper hand in crucial votes in parliament.
According to a PPRP source, Capt Thamanat’s chances of being elected party secretary-general are looking good. His party allies include Gen Prawit’s close aides such as chief government whip Wirach Ratanasate and Deputy Labour Minister Narumon Pinyosinwat.
Not to mention he also has Mr Santi’s blessing if he wants to bid for the post. Both men have reportedly formed a bond after Capt Thamanat helped Mr Santi in a private business matter.
With Gen Prawit’s trust and support, Capt Thamanat can expect to be appointed a full minister in the next cabinet reshuffle, according to political observers.
However, the PPRP will face a barrage of criticism if it decides to make Capt Thamanat secretary-general, as he is not very popular with the public, according to political observers.
The Phayao MP was grilled by the opposition during the censure debate in February last year over his criminal record in Australia and received the fewest votes in the no-confidence vote. He strongly denied the allegations related to drug offences.
Moreover, Capt Thamanat’s rise to the No 2 position in the party would likely trigger considerable unease and possible revolt in the PPRR rather than foster unity, according to the observers.
The first negative reactions would likely come from the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) faction led by Industry Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Justice Minister Somsak Thepsuthin, and speculation is increasing that they will probably break away from the PPRP by the time the next general election comes.