Vaccine alone no cure for Covid’s ills

As strategic areas of the kingdom enter a new round of harsh restrictions over the recent spike in coronavirus infections tomorrow, one must remember that it is the people who will end up hurting the most, and it is up to all of us to help the kingdom recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. The government on Friday announced tough policies to curb infections in Bangkok and its five surrounding provinces as well as four southern border provinces.

A curfew is being put in place from 9pm to 4am, stores — except essential shops including pharmacies, mobile phone shops and supermarkets — located in malls are to be closed, while spas, beauty centres and traditional massage parlours are expected to do the same, all for at least 14 days. These measures were placed on top of the already existing, devastating ones, such as those placed on gyms, markets and dine-in services at restaurants.

It is also noteworthy that the announcement didn’t mention any new economic relief measures. That again may prompt many workers affected by the lockdown to travel back home, a decision which may lead to more transmission.

While it is commendable that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his cabinet are willing to donate their salaries for the next three months to Covid-19 sufferers, one cannot help but ask whether it is enough.

The economy has been hurt even before these policies were devised. The unemployment rate for the first quarter of this year was 1.96% — the highest since the first quarter of 2009. And this figure likely doesn’t account for those working in the informal sector such as street vendors and rubbish scavengers.

Today, amid a third outbreak of the disease and the spread of the Delta variant, first detected in India, the government has seemingly lost control of the situation. On Friday, the kingdom reported 9,276 new Covid-19 cases and 72 fatalities, amid severe hospital bed shortages for coronavirus patients.

The government was forced to implement selective lockdown measures across Thailand amid concerns the new daily infection number will reach 10,000 cases.

The economic trajectory looks even more ominous. The National Economic and Social Development Council in May cut its economic growth outlook for this year to 1.5%–2.5% from 2.5%–3.5%.

The question arises, where will this 14-day semi-lockdown lead the country? And if this step fails, what is next?

Another lockdown, like the previous two? The government cannot keep doing same thing and expect a different outcome.

Gen Prayut and his officials at the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) must rethink their lockdown strategy and implement more responsive approaches if the kingdom is to recover from the economic downturn posed by the coronavirus.

Some economists are calling on the government to “hibernate” companies to ensure a decent recovery from Covid-19, and Gen Prayut’s administration should consider the idea.

Sergio Schmukler, a research manager at the World Bank, says firms should try to preserve relationships with workers, suppliers and customers, by “having the bare minimum of cash necessary to withstand the pandemic lockdown, and social distancing measures”.

The government would need to ensure that credit is available to businesses that do not have cash in hand, so workers can receive a basic income. The plan doesn’t offer a perfect solution — many companies would face a lack of growth in profits — but at least the measure would keep firms afloat, and workers employed.

And what will happen to overburdened public health services if the government allows cases to rise for the sake of speedier recovery? In addition to opening many field hospitals and deploying additional medical workers, the government must go all-out to develop isolation spaces to separate at-risk groups for further Covid testing and treatment.

Vaccination is also key in achieving herd immunity and economic recovery. So far, the kingdom has given 12 million doses, but only about 3.18 million people have been fully inoculated — that’s only 4.6% of the population since in a drive that began months ago.

The government must speed up inoculations even if it faces hurdles in acquiring quality vaccines. South Korea is planning on producing about a billion vaccine doses for major companies and Thailand must be among the first to acquire them.

However, the public cannot rely on the government to do all the work. We must do our part by protecting ourselves and our loved ones, meaning face masks must be worn and social distancing observed.

The pandemic will eventually end, but it is in our hands, to some extent, as to when that happens.