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Debate is raging over how long Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha can legally stay in office ❖ While other major parties have named who they want to be PM, Pheu Thai is keeping its cards close to its chest
A question of timing
Luck hasn’t been on the opposition’s side and it could be exhausting the options available to it in seeking to unseat the prime minister and the government.
Already, it has instigated three censure debates since the government came to power two years ago. None have even inflicted a scratch on the government.
In its latest move, the Pheu Thai led opposition bloc in filing a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Agriculture Minister Chalermchai Sri-on accusing them of vaccine mismanagement and graft.
The opposition has apparently figured that if it cannot defeat the government in parliament, an anti-graft body petition might do the trick.
A political source said the petition looks more cosmetic than substantive. If the opposition presented to the NACC the same evidence it did during the last no-confidence debate, the case against Gen Prayut and the two ministers might not hold much water.
Also, NACC investigations are known to be a tedious and drawn-out process. The odds are that the case might not even get off the ground before the House is possibly dissolved sometime next year and a fresh election called.
The political and social pressures which piled on the government amid the third Covid-19 outbreak between May and July have since blown over with new infections and daily fatalities continuing their downward spiral.
On the streets, anti-government protests have waned. The numbers of protest groups have dwindled markedly over the past few months with violence, allegedly associated with the gatherings and from the Thulagas group of young, hardline rally goers frequently clashing with riot police, only serving to subdue them.
The source said pressure on the government on most fronts was being lifted, leaving the opposition with fewer cards to play in giving the government a run for its money.
Which is why the mention recently of Gen Prayut’s term as prime minister possibly expiring next year has given the opposition renewed hope of sending the government to an early grave simply by letting the law run its course.
The tenure query was reportedly put to Jade Donavanik, a former adviser to the 2017 Constitution Drafting Committee, who confirmed that Gen Prayut has barely a year left, according to the letter of and spirit of the constitution which aims to prevent entrenchment of power by any single prime minister.
The charter bars an individual from remaining in office for more than eight years, regardless of whether four-year terms are served back-to-back or not. It does exclude however, a period during which a prime minister serves as in caretaker role.
The crux of the matter here, however, has to do with when Gen Prayut officially became prime minister.
There are differing views as to when he began his term. They include the day he — as head of the National Council for Peace and Order — was named prime minister in 2014 after the coup; when the current constitution was promulgated in 2017; or when he was sworn in as prime minister in 2019.
Mr Jade cites a condition in the charter which stipulates that a prime minister’s tenure harks back to the pre-promulgation period, meaning Gen Prayut’s term started way back during the NCPO era.
Mr Jade’s assertion was backed by opposition whip Sutin Klungsang who maintained the bloc was seriously considering taking the tenure matter up with the Constitutional Court.
However, for a case to be admissible in the court, a dispute must have already occurred or an alleged charter violation taken place. In this case, Gen Prayut has not prolonged his term, or at least possibly not until September next year.
The source said the opposition would have to wait until after September next year to petition the Constitutional Court to rule whether Gen Prayut is an “overstayer”.
The opposition also came under fire from Thippanan Sirichana, a former deputy spokeswoman for the Palang Pracharath Party, who claimed the opposition was trying to discredit the government by distorting the facts regarding the charter.
She maintained that nowhere in the charter does it say that Gen Prayut’s time in office after the coup be counted together with the period after the 2017 constitution came into effect.
Keeping us in suspense
When the next general election takes place is a mystery, but six major political parties have announced their candidates for prime minister.
The Democrat and Bhumjaithai parties are supporting their leaders, Jurin Laksanawisit and Anutin Charnvirakul respectively while the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) is pushing for its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat.
The newly formed Kla and Thai Srang Thai parties are also backing their leaders, Korn Chatikavanij and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan respectively.
The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) headed by Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is behind Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chano-cha if he decides to bid for another term, despite rumours about a rift between the two “brothers”.
Gen Prayut this week responded positively to the PPRP’s gesture and thanked the party for having faith in him, despite the rough patch he and the PPRP secretary-general Thamanat Prompow have gone through.
Capt Thamanat’s dismissal last month as deputy agriculture minister and Narumon Pinyosinwat as deputy labour minister is said to have strained ties between Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit who was reportedly not consulted over the sacking. Both Capt Thamanat and Ms Narumon, the party’s treasurer, are close aides of Gen Prawit.
Both have kept their party posts, contrary to earlier speculation about a major shake-up within the PPRP.
So, the only major political party that has yet to name a potential prime ministerial candidate is the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. Its silence gives rise to speculation over a lack of choices.
However, Pheu Thai deputy leader and MP for Nan, Chonlanan Srikaew, insists the party is in no rush to name its candidate. According to him, an early announcement will do more harm than good.
Under the current political circumstances, a potential candidate will become the target of political attacks, Mr Chonlanant said.
“[You’d better] wait for a surprise. It definitely will be a ‘wow’ when the name pops up, he said when asked about the party’s potential candidate.
According to political observers, there is nothing unusual about Pheu Thai keeping things close to its chest. They also add that it is never too late to reveal who will fly the party’s flag.
After all, it took former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra only 49 days of active campaigning before she became premier in the 2011 election. This is proof that the public would be ready to give a fresh face a chance, the observers said.
However, a highly placed source in Pheu Thai said the party has a potential candidate and the announcement will be made when the time is right.
The choice could be a property tycoon with close connections with the Shinawatra family and with who former premier Thaksin Shinawatra has no objection, according to the party source.
“The person isn’t his [Thaksin’s] son-inlaw because his ex-wife, Khunying Potjaman Na Pombejra, doesn’t want the choice to be anyone in the family,” said the source.
There have been two Shinawatras and one Wongsawat, who married into the family, who have served as premiers. They are Thaksin and Yingluck and Somchai Wongsawat, the husband of Thaksin’s younger sister Yaowapa.
The name of Srettha Thavisin, president and chief executive of SET-listed Sansiri Plc, has cropped up among some observers when asked to speculate on Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial choice.
According to several of them, Mr Srettha is a likely choice as the tycoon possesses qualities that makes him an ideal choice. They including his fame and cordial ties with those close to Thaksin and Yingluck.
An increasing number of engagements and higher social media profile of late have also fuelled speculation about a possible political career, according to the observers.
In August, Mr Srettha appeared in a Club-House chatroom where he discussed local politics with young listeners. He was quoted as telling the forum that changes must take place gradually, otherwise, a bloody revolution could take place.
The tycoon also weighed in on post-Covid-19 problems saying inequality would become a key issue as the pandemic has widened the income gap and worsened inequality.
Mr Srettha also suggested ways to boost economic recovery, including investment in megaprojects, tax restructuring, price support for agricultural products, policies to attract investors and constitutional amendments.
However, early this year the property tycoon denied reports that he had political ambitions after he was linked to “Change Maker”, a Pheu Thai group that seeks to produce the next generation of politicians.