Modi braces for tough state-level elections

Indian voters will head to the polls in several states in next month and March, posing a key test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi whose government is grappling with high unemployment and soaring food costs as a third Covid-19 wave emerges.

Local polls in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur will be a crucial indicator of sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections. Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party controls four out of the five states and a weaker showing this time could see the premier make concessions to different voter groups to secure a third consecutive term in the federal elections.

The most crucial is Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for about 17% of India’s voters. Mr Modi has spent a significant time in the state in recent weeks, from inaugurating projects to holding rallies that focus on winning over women voters and farmers.

Opinion surveys predict closely fought victories for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and three other states while Punjab, controlled by the main opposition Congress party, is expected to head toward a hung assembly. These five states would contribute nearly a fifth of the parliament seats when the 2024 election comes around.

If the BJP maintains or exceeds its 2017 performance in Uttar Pradesh, Mr Modi’s hand will be strengthened in pushing through contentious labour reforms and privatising power distribution companies. A slim victory or an outright loss could lead to delays in these reforms and a refocus on populist measures like providing more houses to the poor.

Voting in Uttar Pradesh, with a population almost equal to Brazil, will be held in seven phases starting on Feb 10 and ending on March 7, Sushil Chandra, India’s chief election commissioner, said on Saturday. Voting in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa will take place on Feb 14. Vote counting for all the states will be on March 10, with results due the same day.