Expansive gestures from hopeful leaders
Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra appears to be more confident of his chances of returning home triumphantly this year. In the Clubhouse chatroom in midDecember, he told his audience that he wants to return home to help the country and even talks about the chance of playing golf with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
There are reasons for his enhanced confidence. First of all, the next general election may happen sooner rather than later if the PM dissolves the House rather than battle on against opposition Pheu Thai MPs’ attempts to render the House dysfunctional by declining to declare their presence in the chamber or skipping meetings altogether to deprive the House of a quorum.
The recent passage of an amendment to reintroduce the two-ballot election system — one ballot for constituency MPs and another for party-list MPs — will be a big boost for major parties such as Pheu Thai and the ruling Palang Pracharat Party.
Pheu Thai and its predecessors Thai Rak Thai and Palang Prachachon, which were dissolved, have come first in all general elections held since Thaksin took the helm of the party.
Later he passed the baton to other party leaders after he fled abroad into self-imposed exile.
Even in the last election in 2019, the party won the most constituency seats at 136 but was not awarded a single party-list seat due to the Election Commission’s weird calculation of party-list seats.
The newly-formed party, Future Forward, headed by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, won a windfall 50 party-list seats although it took only 31 constituency seats.
The change to a two-ballot system will hit the Move Forward Party, successor to Future Forward, and mid-sized parties such as Chart Thai Pattana and Bhumjai Thai. Smaller parties which have one party-list seat will be wiped from the political landscape.
But the two-ballot system will benefit Pheu Thai the most, so much so that Thaksin even boasts of a landslide win.
Why then do government parties such as Palang Pracharat and the Democrats support the change, knowing that Pheu Thai will have a chance of landslide win?
Here comes a conspiracy theory of behindthe-scenes collusion between the Palang Pracharat and Pheu Thai parties to form the next government.
That leaves a big question mark about where Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will go as Thaksin fancies his youngest daughter, Paethongtan, currently the party’s chief adviser, as a candidate for the premiership.
The New Year may not be a good year for the prime minister. The internal conflict between him and former deputy agriculture minister Thamanat Prompow, currently secretary-general of Palang Pracharat Party and a heavyweight figure in the party, remains far from being patched up.
As an outsider and without any position in the party, the prime minister is on shaky ground.
The fact that he was put up for the top job because the party can’t find any suitable alternative.
Undoubtedly, the prime minister aspires to serve another four-year term, which would make him one of the long-serving prime ministers of Thailand. But the path ahead is slippery and he may be lucky to last that long.
Come August, the Pheu Thai Party has vowed to ask the Constitutional Court to rule whether the prime minister can serve another term after having served two terms already — first as head of the non-elected regime following the coup which toppled the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and then as head of the incumbent government.
Eight years is long enough for an underachieving administration under Prayut which has failed Thais in many key areas, among them political and bureaucratic reforms, and national reconciliation.
Nonetheless, the prime minister always claims credit for the mega infrastructure projects implemented during his tenure in office.
What about basic issues such as people’s livelihoods?
What about the take-home income of working people or farmers; or the quality of education which is lagging behind many Southeast Asia despite the country boasting about universities in almost every province?
Even if Pheu Thai wins yet another landslide, Thaksin’s hopes of a triumphant homecoming may not proceed so smoothly either, without the risk of his facing a jail term or opposition from his opponents.
After being embroiled in political divide for over a decade, Thailand needs a fresh start and fresh faces who think first about the public interest.
Men like Gen Prayut, Thaksin, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and the likes should take a back seat.
After being embroiled in political divide for over a decade, Thailand needs a fresh start.