Food for thought
A casual coalition dinner may have been a show of unity but one party had more cause to celebrate than others ™ Gen Prawit’s comments on an early House dissolution has set tongues wagging as to how early it will be
Adinner thrown for movers and shakers in coalition parties last week may have been to give the impression of government harmony but some may have gone with more than an appetite for a feast, according to an observer.
The rare get-together of leaders and core members of the coalition took place under the watchful eye of political commentators keen to observe participants’ body language, reactions and signals which could enable them to read between the lines.
Invitations were sent out by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha after the event was postponed from last year.
The observer said all eyes were fixed on those who would turn up and who might not at the Rajaphruek Club, especially now that the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) had shrunk after expelling 21 of its MPs for demanding a restructuring of the party’s executive board.
The shrinking parliamentary majority could see the government living on a knifeedge when the opposition launches a noconfidence motion against cabinet ministers come May when parliament reconvenes.
The dinner had gauged the tenacity of coalition parties and the strength of their solidarity. Leaders of the Chartpattana and Bhumjaithai parties, two coalition mainstays, have vowed to stick with the government through thick and thin.
Environment Minister, Varawut Silpaarcha, who is chief adviser to Chartpattana’s leader, said the casual dinner carried a significant political undertone, that the coalition parties were in the same boat. “If the [boat] engine malfunctions, it’s everyone’s duty to get it back in working order,” he said.
Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, meanwhile, hailed the get-together as a precious opportunity to tighten coalition ties and straighten out any “unresolved” issues. This came from a party leader who was accused of retracting his pledge to consolidate the support of 260 MPs to help the government fend off the next censure debate.
Mr Anutin reiterated last week that he
could only guarantee the backing of the 61 MPs in Bhumjaithai. “I can only speak for my own party,” he said.
However, the observer said the opposition’s no-confidence motion may also target some ministers from Bhumjaithai. If that is the case and Bhumjaithai can mobilise enough MPs, possibly including those from across the floor, to defend its targeted ministers, surely it can be counted on to extend its goodwill and offer similar support for ministers from other parties facing a grilling.
According to the observer, 260 MPs were thought to be a realistic “comfort” number for the government to fall back on in the next censure debate.
The opposition needs at least 238 MPs to vote against the prime minister to oust him from power, in which case, either a replacement will be sought from among the prime ministerial candidates from the 2019 general election or the House will be dissolved paving the way for a new poll.
Opposition leader Cholnan Srikaew warned a fractured ruling PPRP should brace for the worst in the censure debate as many MPs may swing towards the opposition to censure the prime minister and other cabinet ministers.
Mr Anutin, however, insisted coalition party ties were as strong as ever.
But the observer said the law of politics dictates that there are no permanent foes or friends. In fact, ties between coalition parties only go so far as the next general election.
Bhumjaithai has the potential to expand into a large party at the next polls, given how it has continued to cash in on image-enhanced publicity through government policies which it is in charge of driving.
Successes range from an uninterrupted supply of Covid-19 vaccines, despite a setback in distribution at the beginning, the successful easing of long-standing legal restrictions on the use of cannabis for medical and research purposes, to the possibility the state might be able to dodge a huge Hopewell fine over a rail project, the contract for which was terminated in January 1998.
The vaccine and cannabis policies were managed by the Public Health Ministry and the Hopewell issue by the Transport Ministry. Both are overseen by Bhumjaithai.
With Bhumjaithai seeing good political fortunes, it is also attracting defectors from other parties, particularly those whose days could be numbered.
The observer said some politicians may be fiddling with their calculators as they speculate on the number of possible seats each of the major parties could win in the next polls.
If Bhumjaithai could win at least 100 seats, it could bargain its way into the next coalition government and with that number, the party would be big enough to successfully negotiate for important cabinet portfolios.
Election talk heats up
Rumours that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha might dissolve the House rather than face a no-confidence motion must have made some uneasy, given Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon’s comments on a House dissolution and snap election timeline.
It is the first time a key government figure has openly talked about the possibility that the Prayut administration might not complete its four-year term which ends in March next year, according to observers.
Gen Prawit, also leader of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), reportedly told small coalition partners during a meeting on Monday that they are needed to prop up the government until the Apec summit towards the end of the year, after which there would likely be a House dissolution with the election held early in the new year.
A day later the PPRP leader admitted that he discussed an election timeline with the micro coalition parties when confronted by media outlets. However, he maintained it was his personal opinion.
“Yes, I talked about a House dissolution. The government should be free [of key engagements] after the Apec meeting and it is an appropriate time for a House dissolution if there is to be one. Still, it isn’t my call. It’s the prime minister’s,” he said.
Thailand is hosting Apec meetings this year, including the summit on Nov 18-19.
Gen Prawit also went on to say that a House dissolution could proceed after the summit regardless of what parties would be at an advantage or disadvantage — referring to a general observation that a government usually decides to go for a snap poll when its popularity surges.
Gen Prawit’s remark about a House dissolution comes amid signs of strife within the government coalition, especially from a group of small parties said to have close ties to former PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow.
Gen Prayut is said to be skating on very thin ice following the expulsion of 21 MPs from the PPRP led by Capt Thamanat. The fate of the premier and the government in the no-confidence debate are believed to depend heavily on these small parties which have 30 MPs between them. They include 18 of the 21 expelled PPRP lawmakers now in the Setthakij Thai Party controlled by Capt Thamanat.
Observers see Gen Prawit’s House dissolution comments as a sign of his confidence in bringing all the coalition parties in line and mustering enough votes to survive the planned no-confidence debate likely coming in May.
A highly-placed source in the PPRP said the party leader has reached out to coalition partners and secured their support for the government.
The coalition parties are also believed to have further solidified their alliance during this week’s dinner at the Rajpruek Club in Bangkok organised by Gen Prayut.
According to the PPRP source, Gen Prawit is said to have lured most of the 18 MPs in Capt Thamanat’s faction back except six who are fiercely loyal to Capt Thamanat and do not answer to Gen Prawit.
If there is cause for concern, it is a group of 7-8 renegade Democrat MPs who have shown disapproval of Gen Prayut and have, on a number of occasions, refused to toe the party line.
According to observers, Gen Prawit’s House dissolution and election timeline should take some heat off the government until after the Apec summit, especially from the Pheu Thai Party.
The main opposition party has been pressing for a House dissolution and it is expected to step up the pressure if and when the draft bills to amend the two organic laws related to the new dual-ballot election system clear parliament.
While Gen Prayut is noncommittal about the PPRP leader’s suggested dissolution timeline, the fact that he has not rejected it outright is seen as a good sign.
“The House dissolution will happen when it happens. It’s the prime minister’s decision. Why should I tell anyone in advance? The situation will be the deciding factor. And the pressing issue is people’s hardship,” Gen Prayut said when asked about Gen Prawit’s remark.