PM’s moment of truth
The moment of truth is fast approaching for Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha whose time as premier may be hanging by a thread.
The fear of Gen Prayut being toppled over his questionable tenure expiry deadline has fuelled speculation he might not stay in power long enough to see the government serve out its full four-year term in March next year.
But observers have wondered aloud what would be achieved by pushing for Gen Prayut’s ouster when the government has barely 10 months of its term left.
They believe Gen Prayut being forced out is not an end but a means of having a quick general election.
A source said the opposition is doing all it can to be a strong alternative at the next election while putting down the government for failing to salvage a Covid-19-wrecked economy and control runaway consumer prices brought on chiefly by the Russia-Ukraine war.
The main opposition Pheu Thai Party figures it has reinvented itself by promoting inclusiveness. The party has introduced the political concept of “family” where every supporter is a member and with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a daughter of fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, positioned as the matriarch.
Meanwhile, Move Forward, the secondlargest opposition party, has consolidated a firm force of young followers through a closeknit connection in social media. The party’s ally, the Progressive Movement, is also quietly establishing political strongholds within local administrative organisations.
The group has made modest, but steady inroads, into local leader organisations viewed as an exclusive club of many ambitious, political aspirants striving to enter parliament.
Both parties might have a reason to believe they have what it takes to take the general election by storm. Pheu Thai, however, wants to go it alone in governing, a goal made clear by its declaration that it was working towards clinching a landslide victory.
Pheu Thai has said time and again that it will settle for nothing less than 250 out of the 400 constituency seats up for grabs. It would be a decisive victory If the party rakes in that many seats, it also stands to gain a sizeable number of list MPs under the dual-ballot system.
While Pheu Thai is all fired up to hit the campaign trail when the time comes, the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) may not be the fresh commodity it once was when it broke into politics in the 2019 election.
The PPRP shone bright, parading Gen Prayut as its election mascot. But it has not lasted. Today, Gen Prayut is battered by criticism that he runs the country like bulgy bureaucratic machinery and pays lip service to the much-hyped national reforms. He is also bombarded with allegations that he lacks the vision and leadership that would enable the country to keep up with the changes in the world.
As the opposition parties build up steam for the next election, the last thing they need is the government taking credit for policy successes, which would bode well for it in the polls.
Among substantive achievements this year are the unveiling of some new electric train routes in Bangkok, progress in highway construction projects, the dual-track rail lines and the hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in November.
Gen Prayut has come across as being determined to hang on in office at least until it is time for the country to host the summit.
The source insisted it was one thing to try and oust Gen Prayut, who is bracing for a potentially tough no-confidence motion in the next few months with ebbing support in parliament as well as the tenure debacle. However, it is quite a different story to search for a replacement and force a new election.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam said earlier if Gen Prayut’s term is ruled by the Constitutional Court as finishing in August, his place would be taken by his first deputy, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, who will serve as interim prime minister.
In the meantime, parliament will look to choose Gen Prayut’s successor from a list of candidates furnished after the last election.
On the so-called “reserve” list are former Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, and Pheu Thai’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, Chadchart Sittipunt and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said the candidates with the highest chances are either Mr Abhisit or Mr Anutin, who are acceptable to many of the coalition parties.
But if parliament failed to elect either of them, a second ballot would be called where a person not on the reserve list will be in the frame.
Section 272 of the constitution will be invoked to create a new list of nominees. These could be current MPs, provided they are eligible. But picking such candidates would be hard as the support of at least 500 out of 750 parliamentarians is needed to endorse a candidate from a new list.