Fed raises rates by a quarter point
Central bank signals more hikes to come
Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday made their eighth interest rate increase in a year and signalled at least two more to come as they continue their fight against rapid price gains. But they approved a smaller increase than in the past and acknowledged that inflation had finally started to meaningfully ease.
The central bank concluded its first meeting of 2023 by announcing a quarter-point rate increase, the smallest adjustment since March.
The Fed’s policy rate is now set to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, up from near zero a year ago.
Wednesday’s move marked a major slowdown from last year, when the Fed lifted borrowing costs at the fastest pace since the 1980s in a bid to tamp down soaring inflation.
Price gains have now moderated, with the Fed’s preferred inflation index at 5% in December, down from a peak of nearly 7% in June.
With interest rates already elevated, central bankers are adjusting policy gradually as they wait to see how their higher borrowing costs are affecting consumers and businesses.
Incoming economic readings will help determine how high the Fed ultimately lifts rates and how long it keeps them there.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear during his news conference Wednesday that the central bank planned to be cautious about declaring victory over inflation.
He said “a couple more” rate increases were under discussion to make sure that price pressures came firmly and fully back under control.
“We can now say, for the first time, the disinflationary process has started,” Mr Powell said, but he later added: “We will stay the course until the job is done.”
Despite that, Wall Street welcomed Mr Powell’s statements Wednesday as a sign that the Fed may stop lifting rates very soon — after March.
Stocks surged as he spoke, and expectations that the central bank will end its adjustments after one more rate move solidified.
Market pricing also suggested that investors had nudged up the chances that the Fed would cut rates notably by the end of the year. The S&P 500 rose 1%, adding to a rally that has lifted shares more than 7% this year.
The disconnect between the Fed’s statements and investor expectations ties back in part to what is actually happening in economic data versus what is projected to happen next.
Many forecasters expect the labour market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves
plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.
The Fed’s decision amounted to a shift to a more cautious period of inflation fighting. Its policymakers are welcoming the recent slowdown in
price increases, and the disinflation trend gives them more room to tread carefully as they make further policy adjustments.
But central bankers are worried that some portion of today’s inflation could
prove difficult to stamp out entirely, which is preventing them from halting the assault altogether.
“We’ve moved into a new phase of policy,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy
Perspectives. “The committee is no longer playing catch-up.”
Central bankers projected in December that they would raise interest rates to just above 5% in 2023 — implying two more quarter-point increases after this week’s move — and leave them there through the year.
Those higher borrowing costs would make it more expensive to finance a car or expand a business, slowing demand and helping to bring the economy back into balance.
Officials reiterated in their statement Wednesday that “ongoing” rate increases were likely to be appropriate. But Powell said no decisions had yet been made about how high rates would go.
At times, Mr Powell hinted that the central bank still expected to raise rates to just above 5% and then leave them there throughout 2023.
“We’re talking about a couple more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive,” he said. He later added that he did not expect to cut rates this year if the economy performed as expected.
Mr Powell also noted that he did not “feel a lot of certainty” about where rate increases would stop and that “it could certainly be higher,” and said it was difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and having inflation spring back up.
On the other hand, he said, if the Fed went too far, that would be easier to deal with.