Ukraine threatens rain on Nato’s parade
Kyiv ups pressure in campaign to join alliance, but member nations still reluctant.
When Nato’s l eaders gather this summer to celebrate the 75th anniversary of their military alliance, the last thing they want to see is a resurgent Russian military marching across Ukraine because Europe was too weak to provide the Ukrainians with the support they needed.
What Ukraine wants, ultimately, is a formal invitation to join Nato. But alliance officials agree that is not going to happen at the festivities planned for Washington in July.
Nato has no appetite for taking on a new member that, because of the alliance’s covenant of collective security, would draw it into the biggest land war in Europe since 1945.
That has sent Nato searching for some middle ground, something short of membership but meaty enough to show that it is backing Ukraine “for the long haul”, as Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, put it last week.
What that will be has so far proved elusive, according to senior Western diplomats involved in the discussions.
Proposals put forward last week at a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels to give Nato more control over coordinating military aid, financing and training for Ukraine’s forces were immediately met with scepticism.
The United States and Germany remain opposed to offering Ukraine a start to membership negotiations in Brussels as they did at last year’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and they want that issue off the table in July, despite a similar process at the European Union that was approved last winter.
But they do want to provide Ukraine with specific commitments they can deliver on. Efforts to clearly define what conditions Ukraine needs to meet to begin talks with Nato have yet to move forward.
And none of these things may matter by July if Russia continues to gain ground and Ukraine looks in danger of losing the war — a prospect that has become all the more real with each month that Republicans in Congress continue to block a US$60 billion aid package to Ukraine.
Last year, at a Nato summit meeting in Vilnius, Ukraine was assured once more that it would be given full membership into the alliance — some day — after it made certain changes to improve democracy and its security. The vague promise dismayed Ukraine and its most fervent supporters in the Baltics, the Nordic states and Eastern Europe.
Nine months later, Ukraine is grappling with the aftershocks of a military counteroffensive that burned through precious artillery ammunition and other weapons while failing to gain appreciable territory from Russia.
The country remains in dire need of arms, particularly for air defence; its foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on Thursday that Ukraine was hit by 94 Russian ballistic missiles in March alone.
“I didn’t want to spoil the birthday party for Nato, but I felt compelled to deliver a very sobering message on behalf of Ukrainians about the state of Russian air attacks on my country, destroying our energy system, our economy, killing civilians,” Mr Kuleba said Thursday at Nato headquarters in Brussels.
Mr Kuleba said he had “listened carefully” to his fellow diplomats discuss how Nato might address Ukraine’s place in the alliance in Washington this summer and had responded carefully in kind.
“It is up to allies themselves to decide on the form and the content of the next step toward Ukraine’s membership in Nato,” he said. “We will be looking forward to the outcome, but, of course, we believe that Ukraine deserves to be a member of Nato and that this should happen sooner rather than later.”
Mr Stoltenberg sought to bridge the gap by floating two proposals at last week’s meeting to continue support for Ukraine that he hoped could be approved in time for the meeting of Nato heads of state in Washington in July. The first, to make Nato rather than the United States responsible for coordinating donations and delivery of weapons to Ukraine, drew objections from Hungary and other allies for its potential to pull the alliance more directly into the war.
It is also opposed by the United States, although the Biden administration so far has been careful not to criticise it publicly. On Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the issue only by praising the current, American-led process for its “extraordinary results”.
The other, to give Ukraine $100 billion in aid over five years, was met with confusion, since it is unclear how Nato could compel its member states to contribute — especially given budget or political constraints like the one in the US Congress that has held up $60 billion for Ukraine.
But Mr Stoltenberg said such plans were vital to ensure Ukraine would continue to receive enduring Nato support rather than piecemeal donations. Mr Stoltenberg added that Nato’s top military commander, US Army Gen Christopher G Cavoli, had been asked to design a blueprint for providing dependable, predictable aid to Ukraine for years to come.