Second line of TurkishStream and LNG

Ageneral global trend in natural gas has become quite clear recently. The share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the global natural gas trade is on the rise. It’s seen as almost certain that this increasing trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

According to some calculations, LNG’s share in the global natural gas market may surpass 50 percent by the 2040s, or even as much as 70 percent, whereas it is around 35 percent today.

In light of these predictions, it is as one sector representative put it: LNG is a candidate to be the most flexible energy source!

Actually this is closely associated with the new pipeline project that will carry natural gas to Turkey, especially with TurkAkim (TurkishStream).

You may ask: everything about this project is up in the air. True, there are no certainties at the moment but, if not today, someday in the future there will be such a pipeline.

Actually Gazprom, or rather, Russia - the real owner of TurkAkim – is no doubt aware of this. The increase of LNG’s share is an influential factor on the future of current, planned or ongoing pipeline projects.

When we say “ongoing,” we are clearly referring to TurkAkim, or the second line of the project, to be more precise, because the first line is almost finished and the buyer of the natural gas it will carry has been determined: Turkey.

But it’s uncertain for now who and which countries will be buying the gas coming through the second line.

Possible buyers are acting reasonably when they stall long-term binding gas contracts as LNG becomes a cheaper and more available option.

So Turkey and Russia have worked harmoniously on TurkAkim until now, but they should not be obsessed with the idea that the buyer for the gas coming through second line will definitely be Europe.

For instance, Turkey currently seeks to increase the number of its Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRU) to get a bigger share in the global LNG market on the demand side.

Likewise, Turkish and Russian shareholders of TurkAkim should think of terminals that will transform pipe gas to LNG on the second line that will carry gas to Europe, on the North Aegean or Marmara shores (or even the Black Sea).

By doing that, Russia will have the possibility to transform its gas according to customer demand swiftly. And Turkey can take advantage as a host to an important leg of the journey of LNG to markets in Southeast Europe.

Never say never!